Eric Hadik, editor and publisher of INSIIDE Track and Weekly Re-lay, told Financial Sense last year that gold was nearing a major bottom and would likely see a sizeable move in the first half of 2016. Now, after a strong 22% surge from January into late-April, Hadik says gold is undergoing a healthy correction/consolidation that will likely last into the third quarter, which is also when he's looking for a better buying opportunity.
Part of the current pullback in metals is due to a strengthening dollar, says Hadik, but, according to his technical and cyclical work, he believes the dollar will peak out later this year in a "seismic shift," which will then set up gold's next major move into 2017 and beyond.
Here's what he had to say on Friday's podcast:
"What I've been explaining throughout last year and early this year was that we should see a 3-6 month advance but then see some consolidation with the full-blown bull market probably waiting until late-2016. Then 2017 and 2018 are the years I'm looking at for a more dynamic phase of that bull market...
Gold and silver have understandably and predictably pulled back...and both of them triggered some short-term sell signals in the first day of May and even then I've gone on record saying that I thought gold would drop from that $1306 level down to $1190 and, depending on how that drop unfolded, it could even make it down to some even lower levels before a secondary bottom comes into play.
[However] all of this is part of a healthy market because if it just went straight up that's more of a reactive move and not a sustainable bull market unfolding. And you need to see a base building, which I think this is just the next phase of that..."
Scroll down to read more of his comments, or click to hear a preview of his interview below. Subscribers can access the full audio by clicking here or via podcast on their mobile device.
Volatility for Next Few Months
"I think there will be a lot of volatility based on some of the other intermediate cycles I'm watching. That doesn't preclude one or more of the metals from spiking to new highs within that consolidation phase but I would not expect that type of spike to have much follow-through to the upside. I'm actually looking at a critical time in mid-June once this correction is complete where I think you'll see a bounce into that timeframe but that does not necessarily mean it's going to be new highs. It could be a lower high in gold and silver—perhaps a b-wave type of peak before another selloff but that really will be determined by the action of the next couple weeks in gold and silver but, yes, I do think we are going to see increasing volatility and a bit more of a trading range for a few more months."
Better Buying Opportunity in Q3
"I'm waiting for a new higher low and a new set of buy signals to take hold before getting back on the bullish bandwagon with as much conviction as I had earlier this year. So I think there is going to be another opportunity with another key timeframe out in the third quarter...and that may be the time when we see a bottom and the onset of the next leg up."
Seismic Shift
"I think part of this pullback in gold is due to a strengthening dollar. They both turned in early May; the dollar started showing new strength and it is slowly ticking off some of the technical confirmation points that I need to see to confirm to me that this is a new impulse wave starting... But, within a bigger context, my work has been showing and I've been saying that I thought the dollar's advance and the dollar's strength would be culminating in 2016, maybe there's a little carryover into 2017, but there's a strong argument that a peak could be seen later in 2016...but it also plays perfectly with the 40-year cycle that we've discussed in previous interviews where all of them are showing this 2016-2017 timeframe to be a major transition phase for the dollar where I contend we are going to see a seismic shift start to really take hold and then when dollar cycles start to peak and turn down that will also be one of those things that really favors gold in 2017..."
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