Secretary of Defense Robert Gates gave an address Friday on the future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). According to Gates, NATO has developed “serious capability gaps” and suffers from “institutional shortcomings.” The alliance, he said, needs to be fixed if it expects to remain viable; and then he spoke of the “growing difficulty for the U.S. to sustain current support for NATO if the American taxpayer continues to carry most of the burden in the Alliance.” Gates softened the sharp edge of this last point by explaining that he shares “these views in the spirit of solidarity and friendship, with the understanding that true friends occasionally must speak bluntly with one another….”
It seems that European forces sent to Afghanistan were surprised to find themselves in “a tough fight against a determined Taliban returning in force from its sanctuaries in Pakistan.” Gates spoke of “the inability of many allies to meet agreed upon commitments.” The Afghan War, he added, is an “in together, out together” affair. With more than 2 million European troops, NATO has had trouble sustaining a deployment of 25 – 40,000 troops. In terms of the Libya situation, Gates said “it has become painfully clear that similar shortcomings – in capability and will – have the potential to jeopardize the alliance’s ability to conduct an integrated, effective and sustained air-sea campaign.”
Two thirds of NATO’s members have not provided forces for the Libya campaign. “Frankly,” said Gates, “many of those allies sitting on the sidelines do so not because they do not want to participate, but simply because they can’t. The military capabilities simply aren’t there.” Continuing to speak bluntly, Gates referred to “those willing and able to pay the price and bear the burdens of alliance commitments, and those who enjoy the benefits of NATO membership … but don’t want to share the risks and the costs.” He said that this is “unacceptable.” There is a “lack of will,” he said. Since 9/11 NATO defense spending dropped nearly 15 percent.
Gates suggested that Europe’s growing military weakness is bound to continue, and worsen. This growing weakness is due to “political and demographic realities.” The Secretary of Defense was touching on Europe’s population decline; that is, the failure to have babies. The decline in Europe’s population is accelerating, and as one German expert recently explained, the average German mother has one son to send into battle. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-q1KkXZkPa8). The Europeans may think of themselves as “superior” to others. “We have outgrown war,” they would like say. But in reality, their superiority consists in a shortage of young men.
“As you all know,” Gates said, “America’s serious fiscal situation is now putting pressure on our defense budget….” The United States cannot carry the burden much longer. This does not mean the United States will be withdrawing from its “global responsibilities.” Gates said that President Obama feels this would be a “grave mistake.” However, if the United States cannot continue paying for its current defense establishment, and if European countries will not contribute more, the viability of NATO may be called into question. According to Gates, the U.S. share of NATO’s defense spending has risen more than 75 percent since the fall of the Berlin Wall. This cannot be sustained.
Anticipating growing financial troubles at home, Gates said, “The blunt reality is that there will be dwindling appetite and patience in the U.S. Congress – and in the American body politic writ large – to expend increasingly precious funds on behalf of nations that are apparently unwilling to devote the necessary resources … in their own defense.” In other words, the Americans are tired of paying. If current trends continue, warned Gates: “Future U.S. political leaders … may not consider the return on America’s investment in NATO worth the cost.”
The demographic situation of Europe has been known for many years. Nothing has been done, and nothing is likely to be done. There is a famous passage written by the ancient Greek historian Polybius about the demographic collapse of Greece in the second century B.C. “In our time all Greece was visited by a dearth of children and generally a decay of population, owing to which the cities were denuded of inhabitants, and a failure of productiveness resulted, though there were no long-continued wars or serious pestilences among us.” Polybius elsewhere wrote of the decline of religious observance in Greece, and a decline in honesty.
Why did the Greeks suffer a decline in population? According to Polybius, “this evil grew upon us rapidly, and without attracting attention, by our men becoming perverted to a passion for show and money and the pleasures of an idle life, and accordingly either not marrying at all, or, if they did marry, refusing to rear the children that were born, or at most one or two out of a great number….” To prevent the abandonment of babies, the authorities even passed “laws for the preservation of infants.” But disaster nonetheless overtook the Greeks.
In its turn, Rome also suffered from a demographic decline (130 years later). The Emperor Augustus famously harangued leading Roman citizens. “How should I address you?” he asked. “As Romans? You are heading toward the elimination of that name. The truth is you are on a collision course with our natural failure. What would be left of mankind if everyone behaved like you? You are murderers, in the sense of not giving life to those who would be your descendants; and traitors, in the sense of leaving your country bereft of heirs.” These words might be applied to Europe today, and to Americans of European descent. But Secretary Gates did not go as far as Augustus.
Today’s “demographic reality” has a financial side. As the population ages, as people retire, the financial situation of all the Western countries becomes more constrained. Money is taken from budgets to pay pensions and retirements. Look around and consider how many European countries are aging. Look at the baby boomers here in America. With a financial crisis on the horizon for China (as well), and growing problems in America, and all manner of problematic behavior manifesting itself on all sides, what can we expect? We should not expect more money – not even for the common defense.
