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CHAIN STORE SALES UPDATE
Don't Be Fooled by Talk of Temporary
Adverse Weather Effects on Retail Sales
by Bob Bronson
Bronson Capital Markets Research
December 10, 2003

The two charts below update our October 14, 2003 commentary forecasting declining chain (12-month same) store retail sales, which continues to be contrary to the consensus expectation of a comparably good holiday selling season:

Note "Retail Sales: Undressing the Numbers" at http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/bronson/101403.html

Of Course Semiconductor Stocks
Are Underperforming
Semiconductor Sales and Book-To-Bill Ratios
Are Set to Decline in 2004-5

This graph of the three-month moving average of semiconductor sales masks the sharp growth rate slowdown that is occurring in the month-over-month figures that the Semiconductor Industry Association does not release publicly, but which can be mathematically inferred. Note also, that since their cyclical peak eight years ago in 1995, the high-to-high secular growth rate has been less than 2% annualized, hardly justifying the growth stock PE multiples that exist in semi-conductor stocks today.

We expect commodity-like semi-conductor sales are about to cyclically top again making a significantly lower high than in 2000 and leading to another recessionary decline during 2004-5. 

An ABC zigzag Growth Cycle pattern is illustrated that is possibly developing with an abc B uptrend ending soon. 

© 2003 Bob Bronson
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