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It has been some time since we last examined the progress of the
developing Global Economic Order (GEO). In the months that have since
elapsed, much progress has been made by the internationalists in
realizing their goal of bringing the U.S., and the world, closer to a
fully integrated global economy.
Now that 2006 is well
underway it is fitting that we turn our gaze backward for a moment to
view the developments made last year in furthering global economic
interests. When we examine 2005 in retrospect, a dominant geo-political
theme emerges summarized by that ubiquitous word "democracy."
Hardly a day goes by when
the word democracy doesn't show up in the political and financial press.
One of the best selling political titles of the past year was an
encomium of the spreading of democracy around the globe, including to
countries that have never had a democratic government before. To get an
idea of how important democracy is to the ruling elites, consider the
following article headline from two recent issues of Foreign Affairs
(the official policy organ of the Council on Foreign Relations):
"Democratizing the Middle East: A Debate," "Further
Democracy in Mexico," and "Iraq and Democratic Peace."
Clearly, the subject of how to promote and maintain orderly democracy is
on the minds of the world's leading policy makers.
From the standpoint of
GEO, democracy should be of paramount concern to the pro-globalist
crowd. Democracy is, after all, the primary engine on which GEO is
engaged. And of course money is the lubricant of this engine. The
principal goal of the world's financial architects is a fully integrated
global economy -- this much they've stated on countless occasions. This
goal will require an integrated political structure to lay the
groundwork for the economic integration. This is where democracy comes
in, for it is an indispensable tool for unifying the social and economic
interests of a widely diverse array of peoples. Once established,
economic unification becomes a relatively easy affair.
The architects of GEO must
work within the grand super-structure of the economic K-wave. This is
the economic long-wave of 60 years duration and corresponds with the
Kress 60-year financial cycle. The K-wave governs the long-term cycle of
inflation/deflation and influences commodity prices as well, including
gold and silver, and at the extreme ends impacts stock prices and
interest rates. (It isn't my intent here to discuss the origins of or
cosmology of the cycles.)
The Kress conception of
the 60-year Super Cycle looks, in part, like this:
The previous 60-year
cycle/K-wave bottom was in 1954 and the next one is due to bottom around
2014. Keep in mind that the final 10% of any cycle is the "hard
down" phase when the effects of the falling cycle tend to be the
most profound.
Within the 60-year cycle
are other cycles of lesser duration and magnitude. Among them are the
40-year, the 30-year, the 24-year, and 20-year, the 12-year, the
10-year, the 8-year and the 4-year cycles. These are the cycles that
govern the financial operations of the U.S. and any country with a
highly developed banking and financial system. These are the cycles with
which the nation's financial controllers must work with (and around).
In past commentaries we've
discussed the nature of the longer-term cycles. For example, the bottom
of the previous 40-year cycle in 1974 that ended the bear market and
recession of the early 1970s. We've also examined the peak of the
30-year cycle in '99 that ended the great secular bear market of the
'80s and '90s. More recently, the 20-year cycle peaked in 2004 at the
same time the 10-year cycle bottomed. The 60-year cycle peaked in 1984
and has been declining ever since (one could say the U.S. reached the
height of her military and economic might as well as her stature and
good standing in the eyes of the world around that time).
So here we are in
"K-wave winter" as we head toward that fateful time frame of
2009-2014. With the 60-year, 30-year, 24-year and 20-year cycles no
longer up, what is to keep the U.S. economy and financial system afloat?
What is to prevent an outright systemic collapse from happening at any
time? The answer is both simple and complex.
If you have ever employed
the use of a momentum, or rate of change, oscillator in timing stocks
and commodities you'll understand what I'm referring to when I say that
in financial markets it's the last increment that counts the most. Put
another way, even when the longer duration rate of change oscillators
have peaked, as long as the shorter duration oscillators are still
moving up, it can keep the upward momentum in place until all the
oscillators have finally peaked. In other words, up until the final
"hard down phase" begins, the smaller cycles are more
important than the longer ones in keeping a trend intact. It's the
principle of the "last increment" at work.
Now that the longer-term
cycles within the 60-year cycle have peaked, the smaller cycles will be
used to prop up the financial system until GEO can be completed in time
for the last of the longer-term cycles (namely the 10-year and 12-year
cycles) to peak in 2008-2009. The 8-year cycle is down until September
of this year and when it bottoms it will be one more shorter duration
cycle the GEO planners will be able to work with in maintaining what
passes for financial stability.
How much can be
accomplished with the 8-year, 10-year and 12-year cycles up between the
fourth quarter of 2006 until the latter half of 2008 when the 12-year
cycle peaks and the final "hard down" phase of the 60-year
cycle begins? We will soon find out. The roughly 2-year period beginning
later this year and extending through 2008 will undoubtedly be one of
head-spinning events and will serve to bring closer a fully integrated
and established GEO into realization.
Along with the cycles, the
controllers of America's financial destiny have another valuable tool at
their disposal. This tool is psychological in nature and none other than
the "fear factor." The ability to generate a perpetual state
of fear among the multitudes must be hailed as one of the great
discoveries in the field of mass psychology (from the controllers'
viewpoint).
Since the end of the
2000-2003 bear market, the mass mind has been subject to recurring
period of great fear and anxiety. All that is required to agitate the
public's consciousness into a state of fear is a sudden catastrophic or
largely unexpected event -- be it in the realm of economics,
geo-politics or nature -- and instantly the public is induced into a
fearful state of mind. This psychological state can in turn be subjected
to various forms of manipulation for the benefit of keeping financial
markets buoyant, especially in troubling times when the short-term
cycles weighing heavy against the market.
Let the market fall more
than 5-6% and almost immediately the percentage of bearish investor
sentiment jumps off the charts as published by the sentiment surveys
such as Investor's Intelligence. This in turn provides the needed
backdrop and gradual repair to the market's "Wall of Worry"
and allows the market to find much-needed support in times of extreme
weakness. This pattern has repeated over and again these past couple of
years without fail, so firmly entrenched in the public's mind is the
bear market of 2000-2003. This pain won't soon be forgotten, which is
why the "fear factor" will continue to play a major role in
the investment outlook for some time to come.

© 2006 Clif Droke
Editorial Archive
Clif
Droke
P.O. Box 3401
Topsail Beach, N.C. 28445-9831 USA
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