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When Wall Street returns
from Labor Day vacation and the end of the historically sluggish
"summer doldrums" period of August, it will find more than a
few worthwhile trading opportunities from both a momentum and a relative
strength standpoint.
The
sectors that appear the most bullish from an internal momentum
standpoint include the semiconductors (discussed in previous reports)
and the silver stocks, which will be the subject of this review. The
silver stock sector was mentioned in last Friday’s commentary as being
one of our major "likes" of all the major stock sectors. The
past two days (Aug. 31-Sept. 1) certainly rewarded our patience on the
silver stocks that had been consolidating near recent highs as there
were quite a few breakouts to new highs.
Indeed,
Thursday’s and Friday’s trading sessions were a case of SS HILMO,
our in-house proprietary indicators for tracking internal momentum of
the silver stocks, really coming through for us. SS HILMO told us to
expect new highs in several of the leading silver stocks, including
Silver Standard Resources (SSRI), Silver Wheaton (SLW), Hecla (HL) and
Pan American Silver (PAAS) and most of these stocks did in fact make new
highs on Thursday. SSRI was up 6.45%, SLW was up 7.87% and HL was up
6.03%. Most of these stocks were up further on Friday, with SSRI up an
additional 4.77%, making it the top performer. Take a little profits on
all four of these stocks right now.

After
Thursday’s and Friday’s trading sessions had concluded we see that
aside from the stocks mentioned above, the following silver stocks made
new 10-week highs: CDE, ECU.TSXV, SBB:TSXV, QTA.TSXV. And the 30-day and
60-day SS HILMO indicators (which will be shown in the next MSR online
update) kept on rising as of Friday’s close. This means there’s a
good chance of further new highs in the coming days. In fact, SS HILMO
is one of the best looking of our stable of hi-lo momentum indicators
right now compared to any sector. The silver stocks are pointing higher,
as mentioned last week.
With SS
HILMO pointing upward in the near term, it will almost certainly pay to
operate from the long side of those silver stocks showing the greatest
relative strength, i.e., those that are already fairly close to making
new 10-week highs or else those that have just made fresh new highs. The
chart of Silver Standard Resources (SSRI) appears to be one of the most
bullish from an interim perspective.
Another of
our turnaround candidates and an important confirming indicator for the
white metals sector, North American Palladium (PAL), is still on a track
for a turnaround in the intermediate-term. PAL should be able to benefit
from the strong internal momentum within the white metals sector in the
upcoming weeks.

The AMEX
Gold Bugs Index (HUI) closed higher by 1.23% on Friday *above* the
pivotal 350 resistance level we’ve been watching, finishing the week
at 353.22. The XAU index was up for the fourth straight day to close at
147.49 on Friday, just shy of its 150 pivotal overhead resistance.
The big
news in the gold stock group on Thursday was the announcement that
Goldcorp (GG) would buy Glamis (GLG) for $8.6 billion. This caused
traders to sell GG, which fell 9.22% for the day and closed at $27.66 on
heavy trading volume. But naturally GLG benefited the most from this
announcement as the stock soared 18.68% to make a new high and close for
the day at $46.12.
Our
favorite leading indicator for the gold stocks, namely Freeport Gold (FCX),
was up 2% at $59.36. The upside move in FCX represents an upside
breakout above that pivotal resistance level we’ve been watching and
sends an important (short-term) leading signal for the overall gold
stock sector. The bullish action in the silvers is yet another leading
signal since the silvers typically lead the golds. The previous upside
breakout to a new high in Inmet Mining (IMN:TSX), another leading
indicator for the gold stocks, also suggests the XAU will soon be
breaking out above 150 as discussed in a previous commentary.

Elsewhere
within the sector the following gold stocks made new 10-week highs on
Thursday: AEM, CBJ, HL, IAG, KGC and NG. This is an improvement over the
past several days and there were no new lows on Thursday. This positive
performance pushed up the reading of the 5/10/20-day GS HILMO internal
momentum indicators for the golds and more importantly the 30-day and
60-day HILMO (hi-low momentum) indicators continue to rise each day.
Remember, as long as the 30-day and/or 60-day GS HILMO indicators are
rising there’s an excellent chance that several gold stocks within the
sector should be able to make new highs in the very near term. There’s
also a fairly good chance of a breakout attempt above the pivotal
3-month trading range resistance for XAU next week, with this resistance
intersecting the 150 level as previously mentioned.
All in
all, the weeks and months ahead look promising for several important
stock groups and could well prove to be rewarding to the patience of
those who have waited out the languid weeks following the June lows.

© 2006 Clif Droke
Editorial Archive
Clif
Droke
P.O. Box 3401
Topsail Beach, N.C. 28445-9831 USA
Website l Email
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