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Bush Trip to Iraq Will Lead to Major Developments
by Joe Duarte
December 4, 2003
originally posted 12/1 on www.joe-duarte.com 

The world was stunned as President Bush made a 2.5 hour trip to Baghdad on Thanksgivings day. The Democrats and others grudgingly supported his role as Commander in Chief, but continued to hammer at the U.S. occupation policy in Iraq. There have been numerous reports in the media over the last few days about clerics in Iraq wanting to change the recently disclosed U.S. plans for a transfer of power.

But, our hunch when we heard the news was that President Bush, much to the chagrin of his opponents, was once again playing possum, and our hunch may have been right. According to Debka.com, whose in-your-face delivery, but consistently good information is not for everyone, President Bush received a “Secret progress report (during his stay) in Baghdad Thursday (which) discloses (that) Saddam guerrillas (have been) taking heavy losses – totaling 1,100 men equal to one-fifth of their strength – and (that in fact, are) in retreat from Sunni Triangle.“ Furthermore, Debka reports that the Iraqi opposition is now “Fearing (that the) US may opt for a three-state solution,” and that is the major reason that “Iraqi insurgents have extended warfare to Kurdish and Shiite regions.”

Debka continued with the following analysis. Bush spent two hours and thirty two minutes in Baghdad, during which he “visited the troops for one hour. Away from the cameras, he was closeted very privately for another hour with US and military commanders in Iraq and the remaining half hour with four members of the interim Iraq Governing Council.”

Debka quoted its double secret sources inside the Bush administration as saying that Bush heard the following from the ground troop command. The Iraqi opposition is having a harder time executing its hit and run plan, and has taken heavy casualties, with 1100 either killed or captured, reducing the overall number of insurgents by 25%.

More important Debka reports that the Iraqi opposition now fears that Washington might split Iraq into three regions with “The Kurdish and the Shiite states would ending up with Iraq’s oil riches. The US would dump the Sunni state and redeploy in defensive array in the other two.” Debka thinks that this fear “was exacerbated by an article that in the New York Times penned by Leslie Gelb president emeritus of the influential Council of Foreign Relations,” on November 26, and titled “Divide Iraq into Three States – Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds.” The timing of the article, essentially as Bush was traveling to Baghdad for all intents and purposes, indeed makes it look “like a trial balloon by the Bush administration to see how the concept of partition goes down with American, Arab and European opinion.”

According to Stratfor.com: “it doesn't matter hugely what the Sunnis do at this point. Barring complete capitulation to the developing Kurdish-Shiite-American entente -- which is unlikely, since the Sunnis are far more fragmented than the Kurds or Shia -- the Sunnis have backed themselves into a corner. Having rejected U.S. offers to collaborate, the Sunni are now politically trapped by their own history and actions, and geographically trapped between two relatively pro-U.S. groups that outnumber the Sunnis three-to-one. Shia comprise 60 percent to 65 percent of the population with the Kurds and Sunnis tallying approximately 15 percent to 20 percent each.”

Expect Even More Rapid Movement In Iraq

Right on cue, things have begun to mobilize in Iraq after the Bush visit, and his meeting with the Iraqi Governing Council. Late on 11-30, the New York Times reported that “The Iraqi Governing Council, responding to demands from senior Shiite clergymen, agreed by a unanimous vote on Sunday that full national elections would be the best way to choose an interim government in June.”

The most prominent senior clergyman is Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the nation's most influential Shiite cleric, who “made public his opposition to the indirect, caucus-style elections envisioned in the American plan to grant Iraq self-rule by next summer,” and that “an election that important needed to be put to the entire Iraq public, an announcement that reportedly threw the self-rule plan into disarray.”

Or did it? According to Debka.com, a different picture is emerging, as coalition Chief “Bremer has cultivated friendly relations with the two most eminent Shiite leaders, the Grand Ayatollah Sistani and Mohsein al-Hakim, the Shiite representative on the interim Governing Council.” Debka also added that “both have acquired an interest in keeping the American civilian and military presence in the country for as long as possible.”

The bottom line is that the situation is fluid. U.S. and international casualties continue to mount. The potential for terrorist attacks, even if they are out of desperation, continues to exist. And there are plenty of plans that have gone astray in the past, whether they have been reported by Debka or others.

But several events are indeed indicating that something is about to happen. Bush visited Iraq just a few weeks after Bremer came back to Washington, meaning that there is now a major attempt in the works to move things forward. And second, if indeed the guerrillas are beginning to incur significant damage, it is likely just a matter of time before Saddam makes a mistake and a decisive blow gets struck.

Revolutions, Elections, And Funny Money

Given the above story, this one gathers even more significance, since it offers a glimpse into a potentially faulty Democratic strategy that could not just cost them the 2004 election, but that indeed may be the beginning of the end of the party for the foreseeable future. According to the Drudge Report, quoting Washington Post reporter Howard Kurtz: "Amid a crush of well-wishers seeking autographs at a high school here, (in New Hampshire) Dean said of Bush: ['I think he's made us weaker. He doesn't understand what it takes to defend this country, that you have to have high moral purpose. He doesn't understand that you better keep troop morale high rather than just flying over for Thanksgiving,'] as Bush did in visiting Baghdad.”

So framed in what looks to be a Democratic party that is taking the gloves off we ask the question: Is George Soros going for a Grand Slam consisting of a major political and financial market conquest simultaneously?

Was the recent bloodless coup in Georgia a prelude of what George Soros and the Democrats are planning for the U.S. in the upcoming 2004 election?

The big questions are whether the evidence that is piling up adds up to such a conclusion, and whether in the short to intermediate term it really matters, from a speculator’s point of view. To be sure, where it all comes together is in the house that Soros built: the currency markets. As long as the market believes that Soros is after the dollar, the currency and bond markets will be volatile, and the potential for a derailing in the stock market and a rally in gold remains in place.

Here are the startling findings, all from credible mainstream sources. All have been duly ignored by the major networks, none of which have bothered to put together the seams of a potential power play, which may affect not just the upcoming U.S. election, but the well being of the financial markets.

According to the U.K.’s independent, in an 11-28 article, George Soros, and Warren Buffett, two billionaires, who have spoken against Bush administration policies, are betting that the dollar is going to collapse. The paper wrote that “One hedge fund manager, who asked not to be named, said: ["I have heard that both Soros and Buffett are shorting the dollar. There's a growing belief on Wall Street that the dollar is looking like a one-way bet downwards."]

But, Soros, the billionaire philanthropist and former hedge fund manager may be up to a bigger game than even the cynics in the currency markets can fathom. He is being credited for the overthrow of Georgian President Edward Shevardnadze. According to an 11-27 article from Canada’s The Globe And Mail.com: ["It's generally accepted public opinion here (in Georgia) that Mr. Soros is the person who planned Shevardnadze's overthrow," ] said Zaza Gachechiladze, editor-in-chief of The Georgian Messenger, an English-language daily based in the capital (Tbilisi).

The article described a well organized and methodical campaign that began in February 2003 in which Soros, through his Open Society Institute financed and orchestrated key steps in the so called “velvet revolution” that removed Shevardnadze from power in late November. According to the article: “That month, funds from his (Soros’) Open Society Institute sent a 31-year-old Tbilisi activist named Giga Bokeria to Serbia to meet with members of the Otpor (Resistance) movement and learn how they used street demonstrations to topple dictator Slobodan Milosevic. Then, in the summer, Mr. Soros's foundation paid for a return trip to Georgia by Otpor activists, who ran three-day courses teaching more than 1,000 students how to stage a peaceful revolution.”

The Washington Post reported that: “The Georgian opposition movement modeled its campaign on the popular uprising that deposed Yugoslavia's president, Slobodan Milosevic, in October 2000 and even adopted its slogan. Opposition leaders traveled to Belgrade for advice and brought their Serbian counterparts to Tbilisi. Thousands of Georgians were trained in the techniques honed in Belgrade. And the opposition persuaded Georgia's independent television network to air a documentary on the Serbian uprising not once but twice in the last 10 days.”

And what’s even more amazing is how the opposition is bragging about its methods: ["Most important was the film,"] said Ivane Merabishvili, general secretary of the National Movement party that led the revolt. ["All the demonstrators knew the tactics of the revolution in Belgrade by heart because they showed . . . the film on their revolution. Everyone knew what to do. This was a copy of that revolution, only louder."]

More interesting is the admission, according to the Globe and Mail article that indeed this is the way it happened, as “the Liberty Institute that Mr. Bokeria helped found was instrumental in organizing the street protests that eventually forced Mr. Shevardnadze to sign his resignation papers. Mr. Bokeria says it was in Belgrade that he learned the value of seizing and holding the moral high ground, and how to make use of public pressure — tactics that proved so persuasive on the streets of Tbilisi after this month's tainted parliamentary election.”

Soros also “funded a popular opposition television station that was crucial in mobilizing support for this week's ["velvet revolution,"] and he reportedly gave financial support to a youth group that led the street protests. He also has a warm relationship with Mr. Shevardnadze's chief opponent, Mikhail Saakashvili, a New York-educated lawyer who is expected to win the presidency in an election scheduled for Jan. 4. Last year, Mr. Soros personally presented Mr. Saakashvili with the foundation's Open Society Award.”

We found it interesting that as the Shevardnadze coup was under way the New York Times reported that the FBI was paying special attention to groups involved in anti-war demonstrations in the United States. Soros, has openly stated that it was his mission in life to ensure the fall of President Bush. In a November 11, 2003 article by the Washington Post Soros was quoted as saying that Bush’s ouster was: [“the central focus of my life,"] his blue eyes settled on an unseen target. The 2004 presidential race, he said in an interview, is ["a matter of life and death."]

A Georgian Blue Print For The U.S.?

So the question becomes whether the FBI is beginning to anticipate an escalation of the type of activity seen in Georgia as a prelude to what is coming as the Presidential election approaches. And although it is not hinted at anywhere, if we can draw the possible connection between the tactics used in Georgia, and the well known link to Soros, it is possible that the events are indeed connected, even if loosely.

The Associate Press quoted the FBI as denying allegations of spying and quoting senior FBI officials as saying that: “We have to have some type of predicate, some foundation, some basis for saying, ['This person poses some type of threat.‘] The endgame is not to collect intelligence for political purposes. The endgame is to prevent terrorism or criminal activity."

But the line between politics and crime is quite thin, as Watergate clearly showed. And in fact, as the 2004 election nears, a great deal is starting to look and act similarly to those dark days inside the beltway.

What Campaign Finance Reform?

And there is more evidence of interesting, albeit legal maneuverings in the Democratic party, also involving Soros.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Democratic party has begun to exploit the changes in campaign finance reform, and the recent refusal of public campaign funds by Democratic front runner Howard Dean and Senator John Kerry, are signs that the potential first tier is preparing to receive a flood of soft money that has been amassed through the workings of George Soros and former Clinton White House Chief of Staff Harold Ickes. Ickes faced a congressional inquiry during the Clinton years for his role in fund raising.

Soros and Ickes are described by the Journal as: “ The men really on the cutting edge of political fund raising these days.”

The Washington Post reported that Soros is also actively raising funds from others. “At his home in Westchester, N.Y., he raised $115,000 for Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean. He also supports Democratic presidential contenders Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark and Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (Mo.).”

Soros is pulling no punches. As noted by the Post: [“America, under Bush, is a danger to the world,"] Soros said. Then he smiled: ["And I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is."] Already he has given over $15 million to liberal activist groups.

© 2003 Dr. Joe Duarte
Dr. Duarte's Bio and Archive

Joe Duarte, M.D.

Joe Duarte M.D. is founder and Editor in Chief of Joe-Duarte.com. Dr. Duarte is a board certified anesthesiologist, a registered investment advisor, and President of River Willow Capital Management, where he manages individual client accounts. His latest books "Successful Energy Sector Investing" and "Successful Biotech Investing" (Prima/Random House) are available on line at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, borders.com, Traders Press, and all major online and brick and mortar bookstores in the U.S., U.K. Europe, and Australia. Dr. Joe Duarte’s Daily Market I.Q. is a subscriber service that provides daily intelligence, trading strategies, and technical analysis at www.joe-duarte.com.