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The Russian Front
Part 1
by Joe Duarte
September 7, 2004

Editor’s note: 

On September 1, 2004, Islamic militants stormed and subdued a Russian school in the North Osettia town of Beslan, where families had gathered for a ceremony to open the Russian school year.  The subsequent set of events turned into a disorderly and deadly situation for some 1200 hostages, 700 of them children.  The death toll ranged from 300 to over 450, and may turn out to be higher, depending on the source.

What went wrong in Osettia? Where does the unfortunate event fit into the larger scheme in the war against terrorism?  And what will the future steps by the Russian government be?

Those are only some of the more pertinent questions to be asked. And not too many people are asking them.

These excerpts, when read in retrospect, are disturbing, as they paint a portrait of a Russian government, and perhaps a society that is in a precarious situation.

In this compilation of articles from www.joe-duarte.com, we piece together the period of time directly before the events, as they clearly foreshadowed that something bigger was to come.

August 25, 2004

Russian Plane Crashes

The nearly simultaneous crash of two Russian airliners, and the possible connection of a bomb blast in Moscow are receiving some very haphazard reporting, making it difficult to piece together anything concrete.

But, in Russia, this kind of situation is unfortunately not that uncommon. There are always two or three explanations. And the potential players usually include terrorists, likely Chechen rebels, organized crime, or the favorite of conspiracy theorists, and novelists, an old style KGB type “accident,” where a government official or spy needed removal.

We did find some interesting information that is worth listing and thinking about, though.

Reuters reported the situation as follows: “The planes disappeared from air traffic controllers' radar screens within minutes of each other late on Tuesday and one, carrying 46 passengers and crew, sent a hijack alert signal before crashing near the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don. Sibir Airlines, operator of Flight 1047 from Moscow to the Black Sea resort of Sochi, said the alert had been triggered when the pilot of the Tu-154 plane pressed a concealed button.”

According to Stratfor.com: “We would normally not make much of the following, but under the circumstances, we would be remiss in not noting it. Last week, chatter on some Islamist Web sites were reported to have included the claim that there would be extensive actions beginning Aug. 25 and culminating on Sept. 10. Such chatter is frequently floating around Web sites and almost never amounts to anything. We would find it fairly extraordinary that al Qaeda or any other group would post its plans on a Web site. We still don't believe it.”

Continuing the line of thought, Stratfor added: “Nevertheless, we cannot ignore the fact that these crashes occurred a little over an hour before Aug. 25 in Russia and on Aug. 25 to the east. But the facts are simply facts and we have two here: First, two Russian airliners appear to have been the victim of Chechen activity; second, it happened close enough to Aug. 25 to be taken seriously.”

The cautious conclusion: “One extreme postulate here is that this is the opening shot of some broad assault that will last, according to the chatter, until Sept. 10. The odds are that this isn't the case. But no matter how long the odds, it is now only prudent to increase security alertness again.”

MSNBC reported: “Russia's main intelligence agency, however, said it had found no evidence of terrorism in initial investigations at the crash sites.”

August 27, 2004

Russia: Raised Alert

Terrorism was indeed involved in the Russian air crashes on Tuesday, August 24, 2004, and the Russian press is beginning to refer to the events as the Russian version of 9/11.

Multiple sources revealed that traces of the explosive hexogen were found in the wreckage of the Russian airplane that was flying to Sochi, Russia, where President Putin has a vacation home, and where he was staying when the simultaneous explosions took place on 8-24. Official Russian sources have now been quoted as saying that the most likely explanation for the tragedy is indeed terrorism. And although it is an unfortunate set of developments, many sources, especially The Moscow Times, Debka.com, and Stratfor.com, all frequently quoted here, raised the possibility of terrorism, immediately.

According to the Washington Post: “Russian newspapers, citing unnamed sources, raised questions about a female passenger with a Chechen surname on one of the planes. In response to those reports, the head of the investigation commission, Transportation Minister Igor Levitin, acknowledged late Thursday that authorities were investigating whether she was involved, because no relatives came looking for her body after the crash. "We do not have information that she was a terrorist," Levitin told reporters.

But, 48 hours after the crashes, an Islamist group claimed responsibility for the acts and linked it to the Chechnya situation. According to BBC.com: “In a website statement on Friday, a group called the Islamic Brigades said it had five people on board each aircraft. It warned this act would be followed by others ["until the killings of our Muslim brothers in Chechnya cease".]”

Nevertheless, the official Russian response remains mostly non committal. According to Interfax: “The Federal Security Service (FSB) declined to comment on reports posted on the Internet that the Islambuli Brigades terrorist organization, has claimed responsibility for the recent double air crash in Russia. ["We are not going to comment on such statements. Moreover, it has not been established whether they are true or not,"] an FSB spokesman told Interfax on Friday. ["The investigation into the Tu-134 and Tu-154 catastrophes is in progress. All possible theories, including a terrorist attack, are being examined. We are confident that the truth will be established,"] the spokesman said.”

More To Come

According to Debka.com: “al Qaeda has finally come forward with a claim of responsibility, published by the Islamic Minbar website associated with the Islamist organization. The statement, signed by the [“Islambuli Brigades”] (named for the killer of Egyptian president Anwar Sadat) claims two groups of five men each hijacked the planes and promises to circulate soon a video clip showing the [“martyrs”] reading out their last wills and testaments. The statement adds that the attacks were the first in a series and there are more operations to come.”

This should come as no surprise to our readers, since on 8-25, we noted: [“ According to Stratfor.com: “We would normally not make much of the following, but under the circumstances, we would be remiss in not noting it. Last week, chatter on some Islamist Web sites were reported to have included the claim that there would be extensive actions beginning Aug. 25 and culminating on Sept. 10. Such chatter is frequently floating around Web sites and almost never amounts to anything. We would find it fairly extraordinary that al Qaeda or any other group would post its plans on a Web site. We still don't believe it.”]

[Continuing the line of thought, Stratfor added: “Nevertheless, we cannot ignore the fact that these crashes occurred a little over an hour before Aug. 25 in Russia and on Aug. 25 to the east. But the facts are simply facts and we have two here: First, two Russian airliners appear to have been the victim of Chechen activity; second, it happened close enough to Aug. 25 to be taken seriously.” The cautious conclusion: “One extreme postulate here is that this is the opening shot of some broad assault that will last, according to the chatter, until Sept. 10. The odds are that this isn't the case. But no matter how long the odds, it is now only prudent to increase security alertness again.”]

August 31, 2004

The Black Widow Squad

The Latest On The Russian Airplane Crash

With the final results of the investigation expected to be released within four to six weeks, here is the latest data from Russia regarding the recent crash of two airplanes in which terrorism has now been established as the cause by most analyses.

"Nothing suggests anything happened on board the planes other than their destruction," was the quote from Russian Transportation Minister Igor Levitin, who is overseeing the investigation into the 8/24 crash of two Russian planes, Interfax reported.

The Moscow Times summarized the latest information as providing a picture in which no hijack took place. The planes, simply exploded. The Times reported that “After analyzing flight recorders and the debris from two planes that crashes almost simultaneously last week, investigators concluded Monday that the planes had been blown up in a terrorist attack but had not been hijacked first.” Also included in the report was the fact that “crewmembers of both planes did not report any problems ahead of the crashes last Tuesday.” Levitin also said that “an SOS call and a hijack alert sent from one of the planes, a Sibir Tu-154 heading for Sochi, may have been triggered by a short-circuit when it broke up in an explosion.”

Russia: Black Widows And Major Security Lapses

According to MSNBC and AP, in an 8-30 article “New details emerged Monday about the two Chechen women who are the focus of suspicion that the planes were blown up by terrorists.” But, the report, in our opinion, did not jibe with much of what has been reported by others, setting up the potential for some kind of confusion to surface.

Multiple sources, over the weekend, reported what was already expected. The second plane that crashed in Russia on 8-24, also had traces of the explosive hexagen.

Stratfor.com, over the weekend, reported that “Russian intelligence has obtained information on Chechen Wahhabi militant followers of Chechen Islamist leader Shamil Basayev who are planning suicide bomb attacks Aug. 29 against Chechnya and the European parts of Russia, including Moscow, Russian security sources say. The attacks would coincide with Chechnya's presidential elections. Several large-scale guerrilla attacks are also planned by Chechen and foreign Islamists in Chechnya's capital of Grozny, three other large towns in the area and in several places in Ingushetia, Dagestan and Stavropol Region, Russia's North Caucasus. Russian intelligence says the attacks are not an isolated event but are an important part of the broader offensive strategy worked out by al Qaeda emissaries in Chechnya and Basayev. The strategy allegedly is aimed at continuously expanding the war beyond Chechen borders. “

Stratfor, quoting sources in the Russian security community also reported “that one of the two suspected female suicide bombers believed involved in the crashes of two Russian airliners was Aminat Nagayeva, whose brother reportedly was a Chechen Islamist militant killed by Russian security forces in 2000. Investigators also have confirmed that Nagayeva bought a ticket for the Volgograd-bound flight at the last moment. Security sources said a second suspected bomber, a Chechen woman named S. Jebirkhanova, traded tickets to get on the Sochi-bound plane. The two planes crashed within minutes of each other Aug. 24. Jebirkhanova's remains were found in tiny pieces and she appeared to have been close to an explosion, leading investigators to suspect that she was a suicide bomber. Nagayeva's severely damaged body was found in the plane's tail section -- which was blown off by the blast -- increasing the suspicion that she was a suicide bomber.”

The Moscow Times, on 8-30, reported: “Investigators – said that two Chechen women bought tickets at the last minute for the flights at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport on Tuesday and that their bodies were the only ones unclaimed by relatives so far -- raising suspicion that they may have been suicide bombers.”

Interfax quoted FSB spokesman Sergei Ignatchenko as having said that “the FSB has identified ‘["a circle of people that may have been involved in the terrorist act on board the Tu-154 plane."]’

The Moscow Times added:  “Chechen police on Friday opened an investigation into Nagayeva and the other Chechen woman, identified only as S. Dzhebirkhanova, whose remains were also scattered. Many of the other bodies at the crash sites were found relatively intact -- suggesting the two women were in close proximity to the bombs, Kommersant and Izvestia reported.”

But, there are conflicting reports. According to MSNBC.com and AP8/30 report: “the women’s bodies have not yet been identified. Officials were considering two scenarios: Either Nagayeva and Dzhebirkhanova were indeed suicide bombers, or their passports were used by other women, the newspaper Izvestia reported, citing Chechen law enforcement officials.”

MSNBC added that “An unidentified Chechen Interior Ministry official was quoted as telling Izvestia that both women were [“clean”] of demonstrable rebel ties. Relatives of both said they were unaware the women were engaged in any activity connected to rebels or terrorists, Izvestia reported. Nagayeva’s mother said her daughter had never flown on an airplane. According to the investigators, if the two women were indeed terrorists and had traveled from Grozny to Moscow, Taburova and Nagayeva’s sister also could be suspects and be in the capital, Izvestia said.”

Nevertheless, the Moscow Times gave a highly detailed account of what is known in Russia when it noted that “the explosions -- tore off both planes' tails. Only one body from the Tu-134 was burned, indicating that the explosion may have been triggered in a small space, such as the toilet at the rear of the plane, Kommersant said. Dzhebirkhanova was assigned to seat 19F, the fifth row from the back, Sibir said in a statement. She didn't have carry-on or check-in luggage, Sibir deputy director Mikhail Koshman said.”

The Times also added that “The group that claimed responsibility for the crashes, Islambouli Brigades, said five ["holy warriors"] were on board each plane but did not describe how they downed the planes.” Interestingly, The Times noted that the “attackers may have initially wanted to board different planes. Dzhebirkhanova first bought a ticket for a larger Sibir plane, an Il-86 that seated about 350 passengers and was scheduled to take off for Sochi at 9:20 a.m. on Wednesday, Koshman said. She then changed the ticket for the Tuesday night flight to Sochi, he said. Vladimir Lutsenko, former head of the KGB's counterterrorism department, said that if the Chechen women were the attackers, they may have changed their plans after becoming scared or facing problems getting the explosives and detonators past airport security. The attackers may have had an accomplice at the airport who bypassed security and handed them explosives and detonators, Izvestia reported, citing an unidentified bomb expert with the police.”

According to Stratfor, the two women may have been part of an all female suicide squad made up of Chechen women who have lost their husbands in terrorist operations. The squad is commonly referred to as the “black widows.”

And even more sobering is this, also from Stratfor: “While Russian security agencies are aware that women are utilized as suicide bombers, police tend to pay less attention to women when screening possible suspects. Security sources said neither airport security nor the transport police were alerted when the two Chechen women boarded their flights, and the sources say the women were not scrutinized any more than other passengers -- despite the fact that there is a proven history of Chechen women being used for suicide attacks in Moscow.”

The Moscow Times on 8-31 noted that “ Izvestia reported Monday that the women shared an apartment with two other women in Grozny and that they all worked at an outdoor clothes market. It said the four often traveled to Baku, Azerbaijan, for goods. The newspaper said the other two women, Nagayeva's sister Roza, 29, and Maryam Taburova, 27, went missing ahead of the crashes and speculated they may be in Moscow plotting a suicide attack.”

A Canadian Connection To An Old Story

On a more sobering note, Canada.com reported that “A captured al-Qaeda operative has told Canadian intelligence investigators that a Montreal man who trained in Afghanistan alongside the 9/11 hijackers was responsible for the crash of an American Airlines flight in New York three years ago. Canadian Security Intelligence Service agents were told during five days of interviews with the source that Abderraouf Jdey, a Canadian citizen also known as Farouk the Tunisian, had downed the plane with explosives on Nov. 12, 2001.”

American authorities investigating the crash, issued a report several weeks after the crash, and cited only mechanical failure as a cause.

Canada.com added the following: “The source claimed Jdey had used his Canadian passport to board Flight 587 and "conducted a suicide mission" with a small bomb similar to the one used by convicted shoe bomber Richard Reid, a "Top Secret" Canadian government report says. But officials said it was unlikely Jdey was actually involved in the crash, which killed 265 people and is considered accidental. The fact that al-Qaeda attributed the crash to Jdey, however, suggests they were expecting him to attack a plane.”

Conclusion

Conflicting reports in the U.S. media while top-notch intelligence and on the spot sources tell the story otherwise, are important to keep an eye on. We’ve seen the bias of the U.S. media in certain arenas differ from the bias in the international media.

The Canadian story above shows how even a few years after an event, there can remain doubts about key developments.

The Russian story remains actively developing.

© 2004 Dr. Joe Duarte
Dr. Duarte's Bio and Archive

Joe Duarte, M.D.

Joe Duarte M.D. is founder and Editor in Chief of Joe-Duarte.com. Dr. Duarte is a board certified anesthesiologist, a registered investment advisor, and President of River Willow Capital Management, where he manages individual client accounts. His latest books "Successful Energy Sector Investing" and "Successful Biotech Investing" (Prima/Random House) are available on line at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, borders.com, Traders Press, and all major online and brick and mortar bookstores in the U.S., U.K. Europe, and Australia. Dr. Joe Duarte’s Daily Market I.Q. is a subscriber service that provides daily intelligence, trading strategies, and technical analysis at www.joe-duarte.com.