Editor’s note: On November 4, 2005, Dr. Joe Duarte’s Market IQ analyzed the riots in France and commented on the similarities between the increasingly dangerous situation in France, where young Muslims, have been rioting for several days in response to a situation in which a young man was electrocuted after being chased by the French police.

By November 6, the mainstream media was reporting that French President Jacques Chirac was making the return of law in France a “priority” and that plans were being made for a significant crackdown.

In this analysis, Dr. Duarte draws some significant conclusions about the increasingly dangerous situation in France, and the parallels to the situation in the Palestinian occupied territories.

Today’s Analysis: Tightrope In France.

The French government is treading softly as it weighs possible courses of actions against rioters in Paris. There are internal political agendas at work along with the potential for France to become a staging ground for jihadists.

As of November 3rd, there had been seven straight nights of rioting in Paris. According to the New York Times “Gunshots were fired at police officers and firefighters in three separate incidents Wednesday night, said Prefect Jean-François Cordet, the government's top official in Seine-St.-Denis, a department north of Paris that includes a belt of working-class neighborhoods with a large immigrant population from North Africa and the sub-Saharan region. In the clashes on Wednesday night, a police station was ransacked, a garage was set on fire and a shopping center and two schools were vandalized, Mr. Cordet said. Riot police forces have used tear gas and rubber bullets to repel the attacks.”

The Times added that a commuter train was attacked on Thursday on a “line linking Paris to Charles de Gaulle airport after stone-throwing rioters attacked two trains,” adding that “rampaging gangs have torched more than 200 cars in the past week, and dozens of firefighters and police officers have been injured, none seriously, since the deaths of two youths.”

According to Stratfor.com, the French government is taking a cautious approach as it balances a significant number of variables. “At the highest level, there have been meetings (some of them over breakfast) and statements calling for calm. Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin postponed a visit to Canada in order to deal with the issue, but government officials are proceeding slowly and carefully, fearing action that could further enflame the rioters or cause them to spread. The deployment of the riot police, however, is a sign of growing concern among the leadership.”

Stratfor also points to the internal squabbles in the French government, where Prime Minister Dominic de Villepin, and Interior Minister Nicholas Sarkozy, who are likely to be rivals in the next French presidential election. Sarkozy has been more aggressive than de Villepin in his approach, in keeping with his “law and order” motif, while de Villepin continues to present himself as a diplomat.

The mainstream media, although reporting the events, has failed to give significant background. The rioting, as is well known, has been sparked by the electrocution of a young man who was being chased by the French police. But, France, as much of Europe, has a simmering problem with its Muslim immigrants, whose unemployment percentages are higher than the non immigrant population in the E.U.

According to Stratfor.com: “France's overall unemployment rate is running at 9.2 percent, but the rates among people of "foreign" origin is higher, at 14 percent, according to the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies. The trend holds among university graduates. Overall, unemployment for those with degrees is 5 percent, but five times higher -- 26 percent -- among "North African" university graduates.”

Conclusion

Stratfor makes two significant points about the situation:
1) “There is a potential threat here not only to the safety of Parisians, but to French society at large. The unrest among the French Muslims could be an opportunity for foreign militant groups to exploit the tension and possibly stage attacks inside France. A number of groups are known to have active networks in France, including Algerians, Chechens and some connected to the jihadist insurgency in Iraq.”

In our opinion, it’s not too far fetched a thought to consider this situation in France as one worth watching closely.

The conditions for a major uprising are in place:
1) Large amounts of resentment in a young Muslim population, whose role models are likely to include the likes of Osama bin Laden, and Al–Zarqawi.
2) A rather striking example of maldistributed wealth.
3) Catastrophic levels of unemployment, likely accompanied by equally high levels of despair and hopelessness.
4) And an excuse to let it all out has appeared.

In our opinion, the riots in Paris are likely to be the benchmark through which Western governments and jihadists take a measure of each other’s tactics, abilities, and potential strengths and weaknesses.

Yes, we are calling the Paris riots the first battle of what is likely to be the next round of the jihad, the transplantation of what goes on in the Gaza strip, to the streets of Europe. It may not come today, or tomorrow. Hopefully, it won’t come at all. But, this is at the very least, the test case of what’s a more likely outcome than anyone wants to publicly admit at this time.

© 2005 Joe Duarte, M.D.
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