IRAQ: HARDER TIMES AHEAD
by Joe Duarte, MD
Joe-Duarte.com & IntelligentForecasts.com
February 6, 2007

Five Angles On A Troubling Story

The situation in Iraq may be reaching the point of no return, if credible reports from multiple sources are not refuted, or events reverse dramatically.

The Drudge Report, breathlessly, and in red ink blasted the following tease on Tuesday evening: "NBC NEWS confirms a secret U.S. military report that says 'Iranian Agents' may be behind a deadly ambush in Karbala, Iraq that left five American soldiers dead. The report also claims the Iranian revolutionary guard is providing intelligence on U.S. and Iraqi military to Shiite extremists, in addition to sophisticated weaponry. Developing... "

Yet, despite the sensationalism of the tease, it is just another sign that the situation in Iraq is headed toward a new level of engagement, that of a total loss of control.

What the confirmation from NBC News is, though, remains to be seen, as other sources have been hinting at all kinds of Iranian involvement in Iraq for a very long time, as well as providing clues as to what the future holds, even more trouble.

On Monday, January 29, 2007, in this space we reported: [Middle East Newsline, a rather accurate web based intelligence service "A report by the Jamestown Foundation said Iran has expanded its subversion efforts and intends to fragment Iraq. Authored by U.S. Army analyst Mounir Elkhamri, the report said Teheran plans to annex the Iraq's Shi'ite areas and oil fields." According to the Jamestown Foundation Report '"Iran has now moved covertly and overtly onto Iraq to subvert Iraqi institutions and eventually to assume total control," the report said. "Iran has now entered a wider and more dangerous game by subverting the Iraqi police and armed forces into a 'greater Shia' cause, which Iran hopes will lead to the fragmentation of Iraq and the incorporation of oil-rich Shia lands into Iran."']

And on January 30, ABC News.com reported that the U.S. now has proof that Iranian made improvised explosive devices (IEDs) are largely responsible for the deaths of many American sources.

According to ABC: "The most deadly improvised explosive devices being used against U.S. soldiers in Iraq continue to come from Iran, and Iran continues to provide more tactical training, according to explosive experts working with the U.S. military."

In "The Blotter," an investigative reporting blog, ABC added: "U.S. intelligence officials say Iran is using the bombs as a way to drive up U.S. casualties in Iraq without provoking a direct confrontation, but a looming question remains. According to CIA Director Hayden and others, most of the EFPs are provided to the Shia militias, while it is the Sunnis who are responsible for many more U.S. deaths. Officials are now asking, could Iran be arming both sides of the sectarian violence?"

The New York Times reported: "Investigators say they believe that attackers who used American-style uniforms and weapons to infiltrate a secure compound and kill five American soldiers in Karbala on Jan. 20 may have been trained and financed by Iranian agents, according to American and Iraqi officials knowledgeable about the inquiry."

According to Debka.com, "Iranian colonel Fars Hassami, No. 3 in the Revolutionary Guards al Quds Brigade’s hierarchy" has been captured, and is being held and interrogated by the U.S. in Iraq. The Colonel is one of the recently captured "officials" at 'Iranian “liaison center” in Irbil on Jan 11' of this year.

Debka offers significant detail into the situation noting that "The interrogation of Hassami and his four fellow detainees yielded some eye-openers, supplemented by sweeps of their offices and computers." Most significant, if the Debka report is correct, is the fac that "Col. Hassam was found to have been in charge of Iranian operations in northern and central Iraq - from Kurdish Irbil down to the northern outskirts of Baghdad – and all links with Iraq’s Shiite militias, including Moqtada Sadr’s Medhi Army, and Sunni insurgent groups. Hassam was the live wire behind Iran’s military, intelligence and logistic operations in the violence-stricken towns of the northern half of Iraq, Tal Afar, Mosul, Haditha, Kirkuk, Samarra, the Banji refinery town, Tikrit, Ramadi, Falluja and Baquba."

What is emerging, though, is a picture of a country that is falling into something beyond civil war, Disorder, in the sense of physics, as in the Disorder that results when the limits of Chaos are breached.

According to Stratfor.com, the recent battle in An Najaf, where over 200 "insurgents" were killed, and several hundred others were captured, was the result of a sectarian dispute over a religious holiday parade that several groups wanted to stage in the town.

Stratfor suggests that the official story of a "cult" that was planning to assassinate Shiite cleric, doesn't hold up.

According to Stratfor: "An Iraqi Shiite messianic group the government has labeled a cult, and which it says fought with U.S. and Iraqi troops over the weekend near An Najaf, Iraq, issued a statement saying it was not engaged in the battle that resulted in the deaths of 250 militants and the cult's leader. Cult spokesman Abdul Imam Jaabar said the cult is peaceful, denying that it has ties to the "Soldiers of Heaven," which the Iraqi government said plotted to kill senior Shiite clerics."

Stratfor fuels the fires of doubt further by adding: "Not only is this perhaps the most bizarre incident in almost four years of incessant violence that has ravaged the country, the government's version of what allegedly transpired raises more questions than provides answers."

This is what we find most troubling about this incident, and about the entire U.S. involvement in Iraq: "The report about a dispute over holding a procession suggests the group in question was engaged in a local power struggle. The Shiite establishment made up of the country's largest Shiite group, the Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution in Iraq, and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Dawa Party, faces opposition from several groups at the provincial and district level in the Shiite south -- such as from the al-Sadrite Bloc, al-Fadhila and other smaller factions. Regardless of its identity, the group in question likely wanted to use the occasion of Muharram to gain control over certain areas in the south. The government got wind of its plans and decided to pre-empt it. This would also explain the implausible official version, which was designed to justify the killing of fellow Shia during the holy month.

Conclusion

Iraq is now entering the realm of surreal, and is on the verge of total Disorder, such as what happens in the realm of physics when an object enters the event horizon, or the center of a black hole.

Five different sources, all of them credible, as we highlight above, are providing glimpses into the situation in Iraq. And what emerges is beyond troubling. It is potentially catastrophic.

It's easy to discount Debka and Stratfor as being out of the mainstream. Conservatives can say that the New York Times is liberal. And some would say that Drudge is an alarmist, while others would find a reason to doubt ABC News, as part of the mainstream media establishment.

But when five sources look at five different, yet related stories, and they all agree on the general theme, it's hard to discount the likelihood of the conclusion being anything other than substantial.

In other words, the situation in Iraq, regardless of what anyone says at this point, looks ready to get even worse.

The markets have yet to fully discount the potential for the outbreak of total Disorder in that corner of the world.

© 2007 Joe Duarte, M.D.
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