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The Real
Bear Market is Coming
by Robert B. Gordon,
Sc. D.
May 15, 2003
(updated July 8th)
In hindsight we now know that all of the market action in the past five years can be viewed as a major topping formation covering the years 1998 through 2002. During that period, all of the major equity classes reached an individual peak and have since declined. Recent measures of investor optimism have been at the same high level as in early 2000. Every decline has brought false claims of reaching a market bottom. Based on my personal experience in the 1972-74 bear market, all such claims are totally false. A major market bottom is typically known only in hindsight some months later as the market slowly climbs its "wall of worry". And history tells us that major market bottoms always form with stock valuations at or near all time market lows.
We look forward to resuming our writing career when we recover from our illness of the past few months. In the mean time, we thought it would be useful to republish a group of our earlier essays first published in the fall of 2001. We do this because the words written then still apply to the current market. Very little has changed in the past 18 months except that the giant multi-year market topping action appears to be drawing to a close. In our view the next 18 months may be much more exciting than the last year and a half.
We wish to thank FSO webmaster Mary Puplava for her fine efforts in publishing our essays and look forward to writing again when we regain our health.
Robert
B. Gordon
Essay
#1 Dangers From Linear Thinking in a Cyclic World, published
08-04-2001
Essay
#2 Will Mutual Funds Survive A Severe Bear Market?, published
09-03-2001
Essay #3 Preventing the Next Great
Mania ~ Can it be done?, published 09-11-2001
Essay #4 It's Lonely At The Top,
published 11-10-2001
Essay #5 A Short Treatise on
Hedging, published 11-24-2001
Essay #6 Dow 1,000 or Dow 20,000?,
published 12-03-2001
Essay #7 USS Mutualfund: Redemption
"Iceberg" Ahead, published 12-08-2001
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© 2003 Robert B. Gordon, Sc.
D.
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Robert
B. Gordon, Sc. D.
Sun City West, Arizona
May 15, 2003 / updated July 8th
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