In a world increasingly defined by electoral upheavals, geopolitical tensions, and a growing shift toward populism, the year 2024 has been marked by a series of consequential elections all over the globe.
As the fourth quarter approaches next week, the global political landscape has already been significantly reshaped by key electoral outcomes, from Europe to India and beyond.
Adriano Bosoni, Director of Analysis at RANE Network, recently spoke with FS Insider to provide a detailed breakdown of the current geopolitical dynamics and what to expect in the coming months.
See Adriano Bosoni on Global Elections, Challenges to Ceasefire for audio interview.
A Year of Global Elections
As Adriano Bosoni pointed out, 2024 has been a year marked by an abnormally high number of political elections around the globe, with significant policy implications for the global economy over the next 4-6 years at least.
One of the key elections that played out according to predictions was the European Parliament election in June. As Bosoni noted, it resulted in a “fragmented European Parliament, where the center-right and, to some extent, the right performed quite well.”
This outcome has already begun to influence EU policy, particularly on issues like immigration and economic self-sufficiency.
The new European Commission, dominated by center-right politicians, is expected to adopt a “tougher position on immigration, a commitment to energy transition at a slower pace, and a push to de-risk the EU from China.”
The Rise of Fragmentation and Nationalism
Several of the elections that took place this year reflect broader global trends toward political fragmentation and nationalism. France’s legislative election was a prime example of this, where “pretty much nobody won,” according to Bosoni.
The National Assembly is now deeply fragmented, making it nearly impossible for the government to pass essential legislation, despite being under pressure from the European Commission and financial markets to reduce its fiscal deficit.
The global trend toward nationalism, protectionism, and populism has become a defining feature of 2024.
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As Bosoni highlighted, “There are many factors explaining the rise in nationalism and populism.” These include the 2008 financial crisis, rising inequality, and increasing anxiety about immigration and global conflict.
This sentiment is not limited to one region but has manifested globally, from India to Europe as well as in the U.S.
The Upcoming U.S. Presidential Election
While a slew of elections has already shaped the global political landscape for many years to come, all eyes are now on the U.S. presidential election set for November 5, 2024.
The contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will have far-reaching consequences, not just for the United States but for the world.
“The center of gravity of the fourth quarter will be, of course, the presidential election in the United States,” Bosoni asserted.
The election will likely present two very different policy paths. Bosoni explained that in the months leading up to the election, the Biden administration would be reluctant to make any bold policy moves that could jeopardize Harris’s campaign.
However, if Trump were to win, Bosoni predicts a rapid shift in policy, particularly concerning trade and international alliances. “If Trump is elected, we will see already starting in the fourth quarter, countries and businesses accelerating plans to diversify their supply chains away from China,” Bosoni noted, with increased investment in “connector economies” like Mexico and Vietnam to maintain access to U.S. markets.
Ukraine and the Future of Geopolitical Tensions
One of the most significant geopolitical issues tied to the US election is the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
Bosoni emphasized that a Trump administration would likely cut funding to Ukraine and push for a peace deal with Russia. However, such a deal would probably require Ukraine to make painful territorial concessions, which it is currently unwilling to do.
“Some Ukrainians kind of understand that Crimea is really lost and that the Donbas is probably lost, but everything else, the Ukrainians would be extraordinarily reluctant to give up,” Bosoni explained.
If Harris wins, however, the Biden administration would likely accelerate its support for Ukraine, providing more military and financial aid. European countries are also preparing for this possibility, with the EU and the UK already looking for ways to increase support for Ukraine independently of US actions.
But regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bosoni warned that geopolitical tensions in the region will remain high, with Russia likely positioning itself to resume hostilities at any time.
Middle East and Other Geopolitical Hotspots
Beyond Ukraine, Bosoni also highlighted other geopolitical hotspots to watch in the fourth quarter, including the ongoing conflict between Israel, Hezbollah, and Hamas.
According to Bosoni, a ceasefire in Gaza is unlikely in the coming months, as both sides remain entrenched in their positions. “Israel will continue to demand to stay in the Gaza Strip to prevent a resurgence in the military threats from Hamas,” he noted.
The BRICS summit, which will include new member states like Egypt, Ethiopia, and Iran, is another event that could shape global politics in the final months of the year.
The summit reflects the growing importance of the Global South, as countries in this group seek to build a world order that competes with the West.
Additionally, China-Brazil relations will be under the spotlight in the coming months, with Chinese President Xi Jinping expected to visit Brazil. This visit may result in Brazil joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative, further deepening ties between the two nations.
Conclusion
As Bosoni emphasized, the final quarter of 2024 will be a period of significant geopolitical activity, driven by the U.S. presidential election and ongoing conflicts around the world.
“In many ways, the final quarter of 2024 will be one of expectation and planning for governments and businesses alike,” Bosoni concluded. However, the seeds of long-term geopolitical trends are already being planted, and the decisions made in the coming months will have far-reaching consequences for the remainder of the decade.
As the world watches the U.S. election unfold, it is clear that the global political landscape is at a critical juncture. Whether it’s the rise of populism, the ongoing trade disputes with China, or the escalating conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the events of 2024 will shape the future of international relations and the global economy in meaningful ways for at least the next 4-6 years.
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