Daniel Amerman's Blog

Jan 28 – Over the last forty years and five recessions, the Federal Reserve has forced short-term interest rates down by an average of about 7.25% per recession. This response to recession of rapidly decreasing interest rates has been 100% reliable in the modern era...

Nov 5 – Home buyers in every city and state have benefited from a powerful financial cycle for almost five years. Most people are not aware of this cycle, but it has lowered the average monthly mortgage payment for home buyers on a national basis...

By Daniel Amerman – Two important financial cycles are currently converging for the first time in more than ten years, and how they work in combination can provide key information about the future value of our retirement portfolios, the future prices of our homes...

By Daniel Amerman – Would you have appreciated a single number that could have given you a clear and unmistakable warning before the tech stock bubble collapsed? How about an unequivocal mathematical warning in...

By Dan Amerman – Could a committee of unelected officials increase your household's share of the national debt by $60,000 in a single meeting? In normal times - they could not. However, these are not normal times and any...

By Dan Amerman – Movies can have quite predictable plot lines that we know in advance - but we love them anyway. It could be a romance, where the girl is going to end up with the right guy through a series of improbable events...

By Dan Amerman – Compound interest is an extraordinarily powerful financial tool, and reinvesting the cash flows received from investments has historically been the single most reliable way of building wealth over the long term.

By Daniel Amerman – The United States national debt is currently about $20 trillion, and the federal government is paying some of the lowest interest rates in history on that debt. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates five times now...

By Daniel Amerman – In a recent speech, Warren Buffett came down boldly on the side of optimism when it comes to both the economy and financial markets. What he said was "being short America has been a loser's game...

By Daniel Amerman – In this analysis, we will take a look at something deeply personal – which is how the $20 trillion United States national debt may change the day-to-day quality of life for savers and retirees in the decades ahead.