Ryan Puplava's Blog

Before we talk about the trees, we have to talk about the forest to put things in perspective. Over the long-term horizon, I believe we are in a new secular bull market that was confirmed when the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Dow Jones Transport Index, and the Russell 2000 all achieved all-time new highs last year...

One of the most talked about macro headwinds for the global economy has been whether China is going to have a hard landing or just slower growth. This topic has been plaguing the market tape since 2011.

Different economic indicators have shown mixed results on the global growth outlook as of late. Is it really growth or is it global re-growth as growth appears to be reaccelerating? I hope to look at the current predicament to get a well-rounded view of the current situation.

For six years, the macro trend has largely driven asset valuations and price multiples as investors have weathered crisis after crisis from the burst of the housing bubble and the collateral damage to the financial system and leverage all the way to...

Last week I took a look at two major topics that affect the value of the US dollar index: the trade balance and the safety/risk-on trade. This week I’d like to conclude the discussion with some of the other major topics that affect how the dollar index trades.

Despite some of the fundamental reasons that still remain why the U.S. dollar should stay weak, perceptions and expectations are beginning to change. It may be time to patch up investor relations with the forsaken U.S. dollar.

Stocks continue to run in place this week. Short-term, investors are searching for the next catalyst to move the market. Washington and the Taper continue to be the most widely used headline to explain the market’s up or down moves.

When it comes to predicting recessions or major downturns in the stock market, the yield curve is an important one to watch. It is so good in its predictive analysis that NBER declared it as having predicted every recession in the US since 1970.

Trying to find the rhyme and reason in the markets these days can cause a lot of investors to feel anxious. We continually face negative catalysts in the market — European Sovereign Debt Crisis, Fukushima, Flash Crash, Arab Spring, etc. — yet the market marches higher.

Over the last two weeks, the market has churned sideways as hedge funds leave the momentum trade in high beta and small-cap names to sit on the sidelines or into large-cap and non-cyclicals.