Richard Russell's Blog

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Russell began publishing Dow Theory Letters in 1958, and he has been writing the Letters ever since (never once having skipped a Letter). Dow Theory Letters is the oldest service continuously written by one person in the business.

Russell gained wide recognition via a series of over 30 Dow Theory and technical articles that he wrote for Barron's during the late-'50s through the '90s. Through Barron's and via word of mouth, he gained a wide following. Russell was the first (in 1960) to recommend gold stocks. He called the top of the 1949-'66 bull market. And almost to the day he called the bottom of the great 1972-'74 bear market, and the beginning of the great bull market which started in December 1974.

The Letters, published every three weeks, cover the US stock market, foreign markets, bonds, precious metals, commodities, economics--plus Russell's widely-followed comments and observations and stock market philosophy.

In 1989 Russell took over Julian Snyder's well-known advisory service, "International Moneyline", a service which Mr. Synder ran from Switzerland. Then, in 1998 Russell took over the Zweig Forecast from famed market analyst, Martin Zweig. Russell has written articles and been quoted in such publications as Bloomberg magazine, Barron's, Time, Newsweek, Money Magazine, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, Reuters, and others. Subscribers to Dow Theory Letters number over 12,000, hailing from all 50 states and dozens of overseas counties.

A native New Yorker (born in 1924) Russell has lived through depressions and booms, through good times and bad, through war and peace. He was educated at Rutgers and received his BA at NYU. Russell flew as a combat bombardier on B-25 Mitchell Bombers with the 12th Air Force during World War II.

Be Aware of the Big Picture

The big picture can be understood if you fully understand the yield cycle. Throughout stock market history, the yield on the Dow has run from tiny yields to high yields, and back to minuscule yields again, and then back to high yields.

How I Became a True Believer

The anniversary of D-day (when the Allies invaded France) has passed, so I thought I'd write something personal about WWII.

What Will It Take?

Last week the Congressional Budget Office stated that the US faces a "fiscal crisis." The nation's publicly held debt will climb to more than 70% of GDP by September 30 -- the highest rate since WWII -- and up from 40% in 2008.

Warning: Bear Market in Progress

The Dow Jones industrial Average recorded a high of 13,279.32 on May 1, 2012. This Dow high was not confirmed by the Transports. The two averages then turned down and broke below their April lows. This action confirmed that a primary bear market is in progress — it was a textbook bear signal.

The Quiet Revolt

A nation like China is losing billions in purchasing power by collecting and holding dollars. It's more than the leaders of China are willing to suffer through.

Market Wants to go Higher

Study the two complex corrections, the first at April-July 2010 and the second at July-October 2011. Both of these were weird enough and complex enough to scare most people out of the market, but both corrections were followed by solid gains. Could we have a third such correction now? My PTI does not suggest another correction here.

Taking a Broad View – Three Charts

"Fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people are so full of doubts." -- Bertrand Russell. Every once in a while I like to take a very broad view of all the markets -- the US and the rest of the world. So here it goes.

What’s the Best Performing Stock of the Last Few Years?

What's the best performing stock of the last few years? Would you believe it -- it's a leading seller of bolts, screws and nuts. (Their products are known as threaded fasteners in the trade.) The name of the hot company is Fastenal.

If You Think This Presidential Race Is Nasty, Look What the Founding Fathers Called Each Other!

You think this presidential race is nasty? The Founding Fathers had it beat. In the race between John Adams and Thomas Jefferson for president in 1800, Jefferson called Adams "a blind, bald, crippled, toothless man who is a hideous hermaphroditic character with neither the force and fitness of a man, nor the gentleness and sensibility of a woman."

Gold Breaks Bearish Trendline; Key Target for Silver at $37

The great GOP debate continues with Gingrich finally dropping behind the Mitt. Meanwhile, the stock market is caught in the puzzle of will Europe emerge whole from its current troubles, or will the Eurozone fall apart like a deflating balloon?

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