Gail Tverberg's Blog

Actuary
GailTverberg [at] comcast [dot] net ()

Gail Tverberg has an M. S. from the University of Illinois, Chicago in Mathematics, and is a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries. Gail became aware of the impact oil shortages could have on insurance companies back in the 1973 – 1974 period, when oil shortages were first a problem. In 2005, she began reading books on the subject, including Jeremy Leggett’s The Empty Tank. She also speaks on finite world issues, including the connection between oil shortages and the economy. Gail has been an invited speaker to many groups, including the Seventh Biennial International Workshop in Energy Studies in Barcelona, Spain; the 2nd International Biophyisical Economics Conference; and to groups on the Big Island in Hawaii. In addition to some of her talks, Gail has appeared on the Canadian television station BNN.

World Oil Production – Where Are We Headed?

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The standard way to make forecasts of almost anything is to look at recent trends and assume that this trend will continue, at least for the next several years. With world oil production, the trend in oil production looks fairly benign, with the trend slightly upward (Figure 1).

Why Standard Economic Models Don’t Work–Our Economy Is a Network

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The story of energy and the economy seems to be an obvious common sense one: some sources of energy are becoming scarce or overly polluting, so we need to develop new ones.

Russia and the Ukraine – The Worrisome Connection to World Oil and Gas Problems

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What is behind the Russia/Ukraine problem? It seems to me that what we are seeing is Russia’s attempt to fix a two-part problem...

Oil and Gas Limits Underly Syria’s Conflict

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In my view, oil and gas resource limits are major contributors to the conflict in Syria. This is happening in several ways...

Oil Prices Lead to Hard Financial Limits

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We live in a finite world. Clearly, a finite world has limits of many kinds. Yet economist and other researchers use models that assume that these limits are unimportant for the foreseeable future.

Oil Limits Reduce GDP Growth; Unwinding QE a Problem

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We know the world economic pattern we have been used to in years past–world population grows, resource usage grows (including energy resources), and debt increases.

High Oil Prices Are Starting to Affect China and India

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The US Energy Information Administration recently released its report showing oil consumption by country updated through 2012.

Low Oil Prices Lead to Economic Peak Oil

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We have all heard the story about oil supply supposedly rising and falling for geological reasons. But what if the story is a little different from this--oil production rises and falls for economic reasons?

Peak Oil Demand Is Already a Huge Problem

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We in the United States, the Euro-zone, and Japan are already past peak oil demand. Oil demand has to do with how much oil we can afford. Many of the developed nations are not able to outbid the developing nations when it comes to the world’s limited oil supply.

Renewables – Good for Some Things; Not so Good for Others

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Based on the sound of the name renewable, a person might think that using only “renewable” energy is ideal–something we should all strive to use exclusively. But there are lots of energy sources that might be called “renewable,” and lots applications for renewable energy. Clearly not all are equally good. Perhaps we should examine the “Renewables are our savior,” belief a little more closely.

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