Dwaine van Vuuren's Blog

Oct 15 – It appears U.S investors’ concerns with global trade wars are dominating U.S. stock market direction for the last two years. This is with valid reason, as prior research (Global Economy affects U.S stock market returns) has pointed out...

Jun 12 – It is quite possible that the majority of market participants are underestimating the extent and duration of the current rate-tightening cycle. Clearly one could now deduce that we are indeed “overdue” a fed funds rate decrease, or a new easing cycle!

Mar 11 – We have updated the RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) forecast models for the SP500 using fourth quarter 2018 data. Stock market valuations continue to pose a “clear and present danger” to positive economic...

Feb 26 – As a matter of interest, 60% of all 10 possible term-spreads have now inverted, as shown below with our average yield curve composite of all 10 term-spreads. All the forecast dates have moved forward by 1 month as the yield curve continues to print below...

By Dwaine Van Vuuren – There is a lot of focus on the U.S. yield curve at the moment given its relentless move toward inversion (when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates). Can the history of the yield curve provide for useful forecasting...

By Dwaine Van Vuuren – Despite the U.S. leading economic indicators appearing healthy, the global economy appears to be headed for a slow down, with only 34% of the 40 countries we track having leading economic indicators (LEI’s) signalling growth ahead...

The strength of the labor market is constantly being trotted out in defense of the robust status of the US economy, but broad sets of labor data show this not to be the case. First, let us examine a very broad US labor market growth metric...

The RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) is a multifactor valuation model that examines cyclically adjusted trailing SP-500 earnings (various multi-decade horizons), the SP-500 total-return index level, total stock market capitalization...

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen recently used her “jobs data dashboard” to justify the Fed’s easy money policies and to argue there’s still considerable slack in the labor market five years after the recession’s end.

The RecessionALERT monthly U.S Leading Growth Index (USMLI) is an index that attempts to capture future (6-9 months) U.S economic growth. The USMLI posted a modest rise in November, after 5 months of declines, pointing to an improved outlook for economic growth.