Tom McClellan's Blog

Editor

Tom McClellan has done extensive analytical spreadsheet development for the stock and commodities markets, including the synthesizing of the four-year Presidential Cycle Pattern. He has fine tuned the rules for interrelationships between financial markets to provide leading indications for important market and economic data.

Tom is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point where he studied aerospace engineering, and he served as an Army helicopter pilot for 11 years. He began his own study of market technical analysis while still in the Army, and discovered ways to expand the use of his parents' indicators to forecast future market turning points. Tom views the movements of prices in the financial market through the eyes of an engineer, which allows him to focus on what the data really say rather than interpreting events according to the same "conventional wisdom" used by other analysts. In 1993, he left the Army to join his father Sherman in pursuing a new career doing this type of analysis. Tom and Sherman spent the next 2 years refining their analysis techniques and laying groundwork.

In April 1995 they launched their newsletter, The McClellan Market Report, an 8 page report covering the stock, bond, and gold markets, which is published twice a month. They utilize the unique indicators they have developed to present their view of the market's structure as well as their forecasts for future trend direction and the timing of turning points. A Daily Edition was added in February 1998 to give subscribers daily updates on their indicators and also provide market position indications for stocks, bonds and gold. Their subscribers range from individual investors to professional fund managers. Tom serves as editor of both publications, and runs the newsletter business from its location in Lakewood, WA.

Quietest Range in Two Decades

The history of the S&P 500 dates all the way back to 1871, thanks to the work of the Cowles Commission in the 1930s which reconstructed an index of stock prices back that far. That index eventually morphed into the S&P...

Signs of Excessive Bullish Sentiment

I like to watch the data on the number of shares outstanding in certain select ETFs, and one of the best for this purpose is the biggest one, SPY. It tracks the SP500, and it currently has $196 billion invested in it. So it is a big deal.

Gobs of Breadth: The Haurlan Index

If you want to have a recipe for a sustainable bull market, the best ingredient to start with is “gobs of breadth”. Strong A-D data is a sign of plentiful liquidity. The stock market can encounter other types of problems, but if liquidity is strong...

ECB QE Doing Opposite of Objective

I like to say that there are only 2 fundamental factors which matter for the overall stock market: 1) How much money is there? 2) How much does that money want to be invested? Change either of those, and the market will move up or down.

Major Cycle Low Upcoming in Gold

There is a major cycle low looming for gold prices. Ideally, it should arrive as a price low in late 2016. But based on history, it could arrive anytime between August 2016 and March 2017, and still fit within the normal tolerance.

Too Fast of a Sentiment Swing

The latest numbers out of Investors Intelligence show that bulls are now up to 47.4% in their survey of newsletter writers and investment advisors, and bears are now down to 27.8%. That takes the bull-bear spread up to its largest value since...

Did the McClellan Oscillator Just Give a Major Bullish Signal?

On March 3, the McClellan A-D Oscillator hit a reading of +332, which was its highest reading since the +386 reading seen on Jan. 6, 2009. The cause of that high reading has been a big surge in positive breadth days for the NYSE ever since the Feb. 11, 2016 price low...

Gold Preps for New Trending Move

A high reading for the Choppiness Index means that a new trending move is likely to start. But it does not tell us in which direction. The Choppiness Index was developed by Australian commodities trader E.W. Dreiss. The idea is to...

TICK Indicator Suggests Another Downturn

There is an indicator known as TICK, which measures the difference between the number of stocks going up at any moment versus those going down. In effect, it is like a momentary Advance-Decline difference. It also has an interesting use as a sentiment indicator.

Why Lower Gasoline Prices Are Not Stimulating Economy

Fed officials and financial news reporters are collectively wondering why the economy seems to be slowing down, even though lower oil and gasoline prices ought to be a stimulative factor. If consumers are spending less of...

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