Tom McClellan's Blog

Editor

Tom McClellan has done extensive analytical spreadsheet development for the stock and commodities markets, including the synthesizing of the four-year Presidential Cycle Pattern. He has fine tuned the rules for interrelationships between financial markets to provide leading indications for important market and economic data.

Tom is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point where he studied aerospace engineering, and he served as an Army helicopter pilot for 11 years. He began his own study of market technical analysis while still in the Army, and discovered ways to expand the use of his parents' indicators to forecast future market turning points. Tom views the movements of prices in the financial market through the eyes of an engineer, which allows him to focus on what the data really say rather than interpreting events according to the same "conventional wisdom" used by other analysts. In 1993, he left the Army to join his father Sherman in pursuing a new career doing this type of analysis. Tom and Sherman spent the next 2 years refining their analysis techniques and laying groundwork.

In April 1995 they launched their newsletter, The McClellan Market Report, an 8 page report covering the stock, bond, and gold markets, which is published twice a month. They utilize the unique indicators they have developed to present their view of the market's structure as well as their forecasts for future trend direction and the timing of turning points. A Daily Edition was added in February 1998 to give subscribers daily updates on their indicators and also provide market position indications for stocks, bonds and gold. Their subscribers range from individual investors to professional fund managers. Tom serves as editor of both publications, and runs the newsletter business from its location in Lakewood, WA.

Gold Sentiment Washout

Gold traders seem to be losing all hope and giving up. That is the message from the drop in total assets invested in GLD, the largest of the gold bullion ETFs. The total assets in that fund go up and down as more investors or fewer decide to be invested in it. The sponsoring firm, State Street...

Zweig Breadth Thrust Signal

Technicians have a lot of versions of a “breadth thrust” signal, and the basic idea is that the Advance-Decline numbers suddenly go from not so good to REALLY good in a short amount of time. The late Martin Zweig was...

Consumer Sentiment Still Forecasts Employment Growth

The unemployment rate has not finished falling. That is the message from the data provided by the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers. In this week’s chart, I am comparing an inverted plot of the US civilian...

Obama’s 2nd Term Much Like 1st for Stock Market

We are now in the second term of President Obama’s term in office. While the Presidential Cycle Pattern shows similarities among all presidential terms in the stock market’s behavior, it is poorly appreciated how the 2nd term is...

Volume Data Have Eased One Concern

We focus a lot on the Advance-Decline (A-D) data, which is the basis for the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index plus other indicators. But we also like to watch what the Up Volume (UV) and Down Volume (DV) numbers are doing.

No Bear Market Signal Yet From Housing

Before each of the really ugly bear markets of the past 30 years, there has been an important signal from housing data well ahead of time. We do not have such a signal now, and so that portends more upside in the months ahead for stock prices.

2-Year T-Note Shows Path for FOMC

To review briefly, this week’s chart shows a comparison between the 2-year Treasury Note yield and the target rate for Fed Funds, which is set by the FOMC. The NY Fed is then tasked with adding or withdrawing...

Architecture Billings Index Flashes Warning

The latest news from the American Institute of Architects (AIA) has some economists alarmed, because it shows a potential shrinkage in housing related activity. The AIA publishes data based on surveys of member firms...

Dollar Is Wandering Off Track

It is widely believed among economists and currency analysts that currency values follow the relative interest rates. We are told, “Money goes where it is treated best”, and so the currency which offers the best...

Utilities Leading the Market Higher

The news out of the European Central Bank on Jan. 22 helped to lift the major averages higher. The DJIA and SP500 have not yet made it back up to the level of their December 2014 highs, but the Dow Jones Utility Average...

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