Sober Look's Blog

Sober Look

Analyst

Sober Look is a no-hype financial markets/macro blog that typically relies on data analysis, primary sources, and original materials. We keep it concise, to the point, with no self-promoting nonsense, and no long-winded opinions. If you are looking for Armageddon predictions or conspiracy theories, you will be thoroughly disappointed. Topics include financial markets, global economy, asset management, risk management, derivatives, regulation, and policy, particularly as it pertains to capital markets.

6 Reasons the FOMC Is Unlikely to Move in September

The majority of economists still expect the Federal Reserve to begin the long-awaited liftoff next month. However is this dovish FOMC truly prepared to "pull the trigger" this time? Here are some reasons...

Beijing May Question the Yuan Peg as the Fed Prepares for Liftoff

Today's ISM non-manufacturing report showed US services sector expansion considerably stronger than economists had anticipated. The strength of services sector expansion however has diverged materially from...

Rude Awakening for Those Who Ignored the Energy Markets' Warning Signs

Back in February numerous equity investors refused to believe that a crude oil recovery is likely to be unsustainable. Many viewed this as a buying opportunity - just as they did in 2011 when such "bottom fishing" strategy worked.

Canada’s “Atrocious” Turn of Events

The Governor of the Bank of Canada (BOC), Stephen Poloz, was not kidding when he warned that the first quarter of 2015 would be “atrocious.” After a respectable fourth quarter in 2014, the Canadian economy took a turn...

Have the Saudis Miscalculated the Impact of Lower Crude Prices on US Production?

In 2014 the Saudis could no longer accept the loss of crude oil market share as the North American production levels shot up sharply over a three-year period.

Managing Greek Default Risks

Many in Europe continue to believe in the permanence of the Eurosystem. The Bank of Greece is controlled by the ECB and its assets and liabilities will always be consolidated into the Eurosystem. By this argument, the collateral...

Reasons Behind Homebuilder Optimism

Yesterday a report from the National Association of Home Builders showed that US homebuilders have turned rather optimistic again. Given the recent weakness in construction spending some have dismissed this survey data.

US Skills Gap Becoming More Acute

The latest report from Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) shows that job openings in the United States are at a 15-year high. By the looks of the chart below, one could conclude that there is no slack in US...

Unprecedented Levels of Activity in China’s Equity Markets

The speculative fervor in China's equity markets is spreading as the Shanghai Composite hits new multi-year highs on elevated volume. The index easily cleared the 5000 mark after hovering just just above 2000 around six...

Sentiment Shift on US Inflation Expectations

We seem to be undergoing a market sentiment change as fresh signs appear that US inflation has bottomed. Commodity markets are firmer, particularly industrial metals. We've seen nickel prices moving up sharply...