John Kosar's Blog

Director of Research
Asbury Research LLC
John [at] asburyresearch [dot] com ()

John Kosar CMT has been the Director of Research at Asbury Research LLC since 2005. Asbury Research is an independent research firm that uses its own unique, quantitative approach to analyzing financial markets and asset prices to help its clientele of professional investors improve performance and manage risk. Kosar, who spent the first half of his career on the trading floor of the Chicago futures exchanges, has more than 30 years of experience and insight in analyzing and forecasting global financial markets. He is frequently quoted in the financial press in both the US and abroad including The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Yahoo! Finance, and Reuters, and can regularly be seen on U.S. financial television including CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg. During his career he has been an analyst and trader for Shearson American Express, NatWest Markets, Greenwich Capital Markets, Deutsche Bank, and Bianco Research.

Investor Asset Flows Target Rising Long-Term US Interest Rates Into Q4

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By John Kosar CMT – A recent movement in the assets invested in two key ETFs that track long-dated Treasury prices, plus an aggressive bet via the futures market by smart money commercial hedgers on a decline in 30-year Treasury Bonds...

Favorable Sentiment for a 4th Quarter Rally

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In today's report we display and discuss the latest investor sentiment data according to surveys of futures traders, brokerage and advisory firms, and active Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs), plus the latest money market asset flows.

Latin America: The Clouds May Be Clearing

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The iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index ETF (ILF) broke out higher from 2 months of sideways price congestion, which suggests that its larger 2014 advance has resumed and targets at least an additional 4% rise to 41.60 that will remain valid above 39.05.

Oil Prices: Smart Money Skeptical At $103 Per Barrel

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Crude oil prices have historically been an economic barometer that can indirectly indicate, and sometimes lead, upcoming direction in other financial asset prices. This can be seen in the periodic positive correlation between oil prices and the S&P 500 during the past decade.

Stock Market At Key Decision Point – Where to From Here?

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We are at a near term decision point for the US stock market from which technology and small cap stocks must lead the next leg higher, if there is going to be one. Look for the market’s next leg higher, or a corrective decline, to begin from right here.

5 Reasons for a Q2 Decline in U.S. Interest Rates

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Expected Fed tapering throughout 2014 has resulted in what seems to be a strong negative consensus by investors on the direction of long dated Treasury prices, as benchmark US interest rates rise.

The 2014 Gold Rally: The Real Deal, or a Flash in the Pan?

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In today’s report, we display and discuss a number of different market metrics including investor asset flows, investor sentiment, relative performance, price and trend structure, and intermarket relationships in an effort to...

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