Kurt Kallaus's Blog

Nov 11 – Has there ever been a bull market in stocks more connected to the words of one person? Presidential palaver and Trumpian tweets frequently rule day-to-day market action. In recent months the words coming from the Oval Office have repeatedly pushed...

Oct 7 – Should U.S. consumers feel consumed by the growing avalanche of negative news? There is an unending tariff war between the world’s two biggest economies, risk of a hard Brexit impairing the U.K., a U.S. manufacturing...

Jul 31– It’s great news that the U.S. economy (GDP) grew a better than expected 2.1% in the second quarter. It’s a far cry from the three to five percent Trump expects and the fluke 3.1% in the first quarter, but it’s also a long way from the recession expectations...

Jul 16 – Since 2001 the New York Federal Reserve has compiled a manufacturing survey of the NY Empire State. It moves in step with most other Fed district surveys and provides a good measure of the industrial sector. After rising from a near recessionary collapse...

Jun 26 – Prominent St. Louis Fed Chair James Bullard doesn’t like gaming investor expectations. The Federal Reserve has conveyed to the markets that they will not cut rates in June but hinted the Fed will oblige in late July. Bullard feels that if you see weakness...

May 30 – When US steel tariffs kicked in a year ago, the yuan depreciated sharply, which reduced the effectiveness of tariffs with cheaper Chinese export prices. The yuan had been rallying in 2019 as a trade agreement seemed imminent, but their currency plunged...

May 16 – Over 2,000 years ago Iran, known then as Persia, was the world’s first super power. Since becoming an anti-western theocratic Islamic Republic in 1979, Iran has been in the crosshairs of conservative...

May 6 – Virtually every week this year confidence of a major trade agreement between the US and China has grown. Just a few days ago Trump surrogates spread rumors that a deal would be announced in a week. Suddenly, a lack of progress on trade deal enforcement terms...

Apr 22 – In 2018, the U.S. economy expanded beyond its sustainable production capacity, juiced by massive tax cuts and global preordering ahead of Trump’s tariff hikes. As winter approached...

Apr 3 – The stock market discounts future expectations. The roaring rally of the past 14 weeks cast aside recession ruminations and increasingly anticipates an economic rebound coincident with an important trade agreement...