The Latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for September is now available. The index decreased 0.2 percent from a revised August 123.5 to today's 123.3. The latest indicator value came in below the 0.0 percent forecast by Investing.com.
Here is an overview from the LEI press release:
The Conference Board LEI for the US decreased in September with stock prices, building permits and average weekly hours making large negative contributions. Despite the slight decline in the LEI, in the six-month period ending September 2015, the leading economic index increased 1.5 percent (about a 3.0 percent annual rate), slower than its growth of 1.9 percent (about a 3.9 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. The strengths among the leading indicators remain more widespread than the weaknesses. [Full notes in PDF]
Here is a chart of the LEI series with documented recessions as identified by the NBER.
For additional perspective on this indicator, see the latest press release, which includes this overview:
“Despite September’s decline, the US LEI still suggests economic expansion will continue, although at a moderate pace,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The recent weakness in stock markets, the manufacturing sector and housing permits was offset by gains in financial indicators, and to a lesser extent improvements in consumer expectations and initial claims for unemployment insurance. The US economy is on track for moderate growth of about 2.5 percent in the coming quarters, despite the mixed global economic landscape.”
For a better understanding of the relationship between the LEI and recessions, the next chart shows the percentage off the previous peak for the index and the number of months between the previous peak and official recessions.
LEI and Its Six-Month Smoothed Rate of Change
Based on suggestions from Neile Wolfe of Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC and Dwaine Van Vuuren of RecessionAlert, we can tighten the recession lead times for this indicator by plotting a smoothed six-month rate of change to further enhance our use of the Conference Board's LEI as gauge of recession risk.
As we can see, the LEI has historically dropped below its six-month moving average anywhere between 2 to 15 months before a recession. The latest reading of this smoothed rate-of-change suggests no near-term recession risk
