The following article is an excerpt of the Browning Newsletter, a key source of information in describing the relationship between macro weather-related trends and their potential impact upon energy, commodities, and the wider global economy. To subscribe to her montly newsletter, CLICK HERE.
Weather Notes from Around the World
It has to be one of the strangest weather phenomena of the decade. A Bournemouth, England resident was rained on by marble-sized balls of blue jelly. When he gingerly collected the slime, the Bournemouth University reported that they appeared to be fish eggs. Unfortunately, it was slimy blue mystery eggs, not caviar.
Beware the “Beast from the East”, the huge wave of freezing weather hitting Europe. When the Arctic Oscillation finally became negative during the second half of January, it allowed freezing air to surge south. The neutral North Atlantic Oscillation meant the air plunged south in Russia and Eastern Europe, rather than Western Europe. At least 44 people have died from the cold in Poland, Ukraine and the Balkans. Tens of thousands have had to move to shelters as temperatures plunged. The Ukraine is experiencing its coldest winter in six years and Poland has seen nights drop to -30˚C (-22˚F). The cold spread east and now Great Britain, with nighttime temperatures at -11˚C (-12˚F) is colder than Iceland.
What has made this cold spell so severe is that the first half of winter, when the NAO was positive, was unusually mild. This has allowed winter crops, like winter wheat in Russia, to become more advanced than normal. The lack of snow cover and the advanced state of the wheat has allowed crops to sustain frost damage. While economists note that the cold snap will have a limited impact on the heating oil market, it is bullish for natural gas. Wheat prices have risen and Russia is considering a protective grain export duty.
Like the United States, China’s biggest weather problem this winter was dry conditions in its southern tier. The North had a prolonged wet season monsoon, with good rain through November. For the South, however, the weak South China Sea monsoon meant a shortage of rain. A weak monsoon does not penetrate as deeply into the continent, and this year it left Southwest China very dry. This is a problem, since this region feeds the headwaters of the Yangtze, Pearl, Mekong, Irrawaddy and Brahmaputra Rivers.
The drought continued during the monsoon’s dry season as well. By mid-January, Poyang Lake, China’s largest freshwater lake and home to a rare finless porpoise, has shrunk to half its size. Articles mentioned that areas had drought from last July to this January.
Now the official word is that no part of China has drought. Some areas still look quite dry when viewing satellite pictures, but it’s official – no drought. Nothing to see here. Move right along.
The drought in Texas has spread deep into northern Mexico. This has not only hurt corn, but also the normally well-tended crops of marijuana and opium. (This is amazing – the opium poppy is extremely drought resistant.) However, it has not dried up demand and now cartels are ramping up their production of synthetic drugs. Authorities report an explosive growth of meth labs.
We may be getting off lightly. A new article by Gifford Miller et. al. in the 31 January in issue of Geophysical Research Letters, reports that an episode of volcano eruptions may have caused the “Little Ice Age.” The new study by scientists from Colorado, California, Iceland and Scotland suggests that the onset of the little Ice Age was caused by an unusual, 50-year-long episode of four massive tropical volcanic eruptions that started in 1273.
Scientists found indications of tremendous growth of Arctic sea ice at the time these volcanoes exploded. Climate models suggest the sea ice expanded along the east coast of Greenland and out into the Atlantic. As it melted, it freshened the northern waters until they were unable to mix with deeper North Atlantic water. This dramatically slowed the flow of the Gulf Stream, stopping the northern flow of tropical weather. This in turn, cooled the northern climate even further. It became a self-sustaining feedback loop long after the effects of the volcanic aerosols subsided. What started as a series of volcano eruptions evolved into a long-time impact on ocean currents that took centuries to correct.
The scientists suggest that this cooling took place independent of solar cooling. If they are right, then Alaska may be lucky to be getting only 27 feet of snow this year!
Drought Increases Across the U.S., California
The continued sunny skies have brought drought. Currently 58.20% of the contiguous US is dry and 36.21% is in drought. The second La Niña winter in a row increased the national drought by 18% over this time last year. The good news is the temperatures have been enjoyable, especially for consumers who have saved on their heating bills.
The area of greatest concern is the increasing drought in the West, particularly in California. In most Western states, snowpack provides 60–80% of all water. This year, largely as a result of the La Niña and the long-term Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Western snowpack is 73-81% below normal. It is particularly lacking in the Colorado River Basin, the source of water for much of Southern California. California as a whole has experienced its second driest December on record and the drought continued until a short, freezing mid-winter storm.
Fortunately, most Western reservoirs are still filled water from last year’s bountiful snow. There will be water, but unfortunately, politics sometimes intrude into portioning out the shares. As Californians say, “Water flows towards the money.” Typically, hydro-electricity ranks last and a Beverly Hills golf course trumps everything.
One bit of good weather news is that large portions of the Southern Plains had between 150-300% of their normal precipitation. It is telling that even with all this moisture, Texas only changed from having 100% of its territory in drought to 99.4% dry and 95.1% remaining in drought.
Canada is also facing water concerns. During December, El Paso, Texas on the Mexican border had more snow than Toronto, Ontario. Since then, most of the Eastern Provinces have received near normal precipitation but the Prairie Provinces have not. Large portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba have received less than 40% of their normal precipitation and most of the West has received less than 60%. While these areas have months before planting time, the dry autumn and the continued dry weather this winter means that, without heavy snow or rain before April and May, spring planting conditions will be dry.
Looking Ahead
As a historic climatologist, I found it is impossible to find a record of a year that has exactly the same factors shaping the climate as currently exist. Sometimes we have entire decades without a volcano eruptions large enough to enter the stratosphere. Since 2009, we have had five eruptions, all in polar regions. Even if one assumes that the two eruptions in 2009 have precipitated out and the eruption in Chile will not affect the Northern Hemisphere, we are still left with very unusual conditions. As noted earlier, the last time large volcanoes erupted in both the North Pacific and North Atlantic was 1783/84, during the Little Ice Age.
The La Niña, which weakened in December, strengthened in January. It seemed to have peaked around January 20 and remained moderate. Currently the cooled pool of water in the central Tropical Pacific is moderate (1.2˚C or 2.2˚F below normal) and weak (0.7˚C or 1.3˚F) in the east. Most models around the world expect the phenomenon to fade through late winter and early spring. The Pacific is expected to be neutral by mid to late spring. The experts are then divided on whether the ocean will warm, remain neutral or cool again in autumn.
Meanwhile both the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation will continue to be pressured to return to neutral and/or positive values. This should speed the retreat of winter weather. At the same time, the rapidly flowing Atlantic current will rapidly heat up the Gulf and East Coast.
When the weakening La Niña is combined with the complex conditions in the Atlantic, we have seen the following conditions.
Late Winter
In 80% of similar years, warmth from the Gulf of Mexico and the Tropical Atlantic wells up through the South and East Coast as well as the Atlantic Provinces. The only portion of the continent at risk for cooler weather is in the Pacific Northwest. The West, particularly the Southwest, normally has problems with dry weather, while the Great Lakes and portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast have a high probability of above average moisture.
Early Spring
In 80% of similar years, the Midwest and portions of the Pacific Northwest experienced cooler than average conditions. Large portions of the Southwest and the Northern Plains/Prairie Provinces normally have dry conditions, while most of the East experiences above average rainfall.
Mid Spring
Typically, the western Canadian/US border region has drier, cooler weather that interferes with spring planting. In most years, the Great Lakes and Midwest also experience above average moisture that also causes delayed planting. (In 60% of these years, there is flooding in portions of Manitoba and Minnesota.) The heavy rains are spread from the Central Plains to the Upper South. Meanwhile, the Southwest, particularly the Southern California and the Colorado River, has low snowpack and continued drought.
In short, the same factors that have shaped an unusual winter will create a pleasant spring. However, the weather will present problems for spring planting and challenges for Western water supplies. Enjoy the pleasant weather; there is a real risk of heat and water problems in summer. Summer, like the upcoming spring and the strange winter of 2011/2012, will be shaped by the results of Iceland’s Grimsvötn and the Icelandic Low.
Make sure to listen to Jim's interview with Evelyn Garriss next week on our Newshour page where you can also find top-rated interviews from experts, authors, and leading market commentators
