The following is an excerpt from the November 6, 2013 blog for Decision Point subscribers.
Stocks: Based upon a 9/18/2013 Thrust/Trend Model buy signal, our current intermediate-term market posture for the S&P 500 is bullish. The Trend Model, which informs our long-term outlook, is on a buy signal as of 9/9/2013, so our long-term posture is bullish.
Price is still tip-toeing along the top of the wedge. Yesterday I was concerned about the PMO turning down for the first time since the price bottom in October, which signals a change to negative momentum; but, today it turned back up. Volume is rising which is positive.
Price is consolidating sideways and unfortunately it results in our indicators having tremors. With jittery daily indicator readings, we have to look at the trend and all of the indicators are trending lower, giving the impression there isn't much steam building to power a rally.
Dollar: As of 7/23/2013 the US Dollar Index ETF (UUP) is on a Trend Model neutral signal. The LT Trend Model, which informs our long-term outlook, is on a sell signal as of 8/13/2013, so our long-term posture is bearish.
Price broke out of the bullish descending wedge and has paused, clustering around the 50-EMA. Momentum is positive when you observe the PMO. Also, you could interpret price in the thumbnail as forming a bull flag. My problem with getting overly bullish here is that price hasn't been able to break above horizontal resistance (blue dotted line) at the June/August lows and October high around 21.75.
Gold: As of 9/24/2013 Gold is on a Trend Model sell signal. The LT Trend Model, which informs our long-term outlook, is on a sell signal as of 2/15/2013, so our long-term posture is bearish.
The 20-EMA was turned away before crossing over the 50-EMA which is bearish. There now appears to be a new declining trend channel forming. The bearish reverse flag in the thumbnail suggests a target price around 1250 which would bring it down to the bottom of that channel.
Crude Oil (USO): As of 10/9/2013 United States Oil Fund (USO) is on a Trend Model neutral signal. The LT Trend Model, which informs our long-term outlook, is on a buy signal as of 7/3/2013, so our long-term posture is bullish.
Price finally snapped back after a six day deep decline. It is likely a pause before heading back down since today's move up didn't break out from the declining tops line viewed in the thumbnail.
Bonds (TLT): As of 10/21/2013 The 20+ Year T-Bonds ETF (TLT) is on a Trend Model buy signal. The LT Trend Model, which informs our long-term outlook, is on a sell signal as of 5/29/2013, so our long-term posture is bearish.
Price broke down below rising bottoms support, but the breakdown was far from decisive. A falling PMO and 20/50-EMAs hint that price will continue to deteriorate.
Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.
