Aug 13, 2024 – As the United States approaches its next presidential election, the stark contrast between potential candidates and their policies adds a layer of uncertainty to an already complex economic picture. The outcome of this election...
Aug 8, 2024 – The recession signal from the Sahm Rule is why the S&P 500 lost 100 points or -1.8% on August 2 after the release of the jobs report. Since 1953, the recession signal has consistently arrived after a recession has taken hold...
Aug 5, 2024 – In the 1954 film “The High and the Mighty,” a flight from Honolulu to San Francisco experiences a failure of one of its four engines and a fuel loss. This emergency arises just beyond the point of no return, where turning back is no longer an option...
Jul 30, 2024 – A number of mega cap stocks report earnings this week so the likelihood of volatility is high. The chart of the Semiconductor Index provided an important clue given that institutions remain overweight this index and any change to...
Jul 24, 2024 – The magnitude of the move into the Russell 2000 was historic. When data is 2 standard deviations from the mean it encompasses 95.0% of all outcomes. According to Bespoke, the Russell 2000 closed 4.4 standard deviations above...
Jul 23, 2024 – The stock market typically rallies after the last Fed rate hike through the onset of a recession. However, once a recession begins, the stock market has seen declines as little as 9% (1980 recession) to as great as 54% (2007-2009)...
Jul 18, 2024 – Richard Turrin, the best-selling author of Cashless, breaks down the recent move by Saudi Arabia to join the Chinese-led mBridge alternative to SWIFT, and how this will very likely lead to other countries diversifying...
Jul 18, 2024 – After the CPI report on July 11, Semiconductor and Mega Cap stocks sold off sharply. The Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell -3.8% from its intra-day high as Nvidia shed -6.7%. On Friday, these sectors rallied as Momentum players...
Jul 9, 2024 – Services comprise 80% of GDP so changes in the level of growth in services will determine when and how much the economy slows. One month doesn’t make a trend but it can offer a clue. In June, the ISM Services Index...
July 1, 2024 – In the ever-evolving landscape of the stock market, one startling trend has emerged: an extraordinary concentration of investor wealth in just a handful of stocks. Astonishingly, the top five giants of the S&P 500 now account for...
