In this edition of the Big Picture, “Forecast 2016 – Shelter in a Storm” Jim gives his forecast for the economy and the markets for 2016. Last week, Jim noted the consensus forecast was basically a continuation of last year, with growth predicted around 2.5%, same as 2015. Jim believes this year will be determined by two catalysts, both involving the Federal Reserve. He also notes the seven Wild Card events he discussed last week that could influence the Fed in their policies. In Jim’s opinion, the biggest risk in 2016 is a policy mistake by the Federal Reserve, in which it continues to tighten and causes a global crisis. Jim also discusses the investment implications for what looks to be a stormy year in the markets.
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