Jim is pleased to welcome back Gary Shilling Ph.D., President at A Gary Shilling & Co and publisher of the newsletter Insight. Jim and Gary cover a wide variety of issues. Gary notes that global economic weakness may force the Federal Reserve to cut rates before it raises them. He reiterates his forecast that the 10-year Treasury bond will hit a 1% yield and the 30-year Treasury bond will hit a 2% yield before bottoming. However, Gary also mentions that massive fiscal stimulus by the next administration could end the era of slow growth. He also discusses the true unemployment rate today, and why the Fed’s policy of transparency is so ineffective. Gary has a history of some very prescient market forecasts, and he explains the three basic tenants or criteria of his forecasting philosophy.
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