Smart Macro: Jobs Data Divergence Nearing Recessionary Levels

March 15, 2024 – Financial Sense Wealth Management's CIO, Chris Puplava, explores the widening gap between the US government's optimistic portrayal of a robust economy and a tight labor market, as opposed to the concerning state-level unemployment data, temporary help layoffs, and other indicators that are surging towards levels typically associated with an economic downturn. See charts below discussed on today's show.

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California Unemployment Level Rises to 5.2%

california unemployment rate
Source: Bloomberg, Financial Sense Wealth Management

86% of States with Rising Unemployment Above 1-Year Average

state level unemployment
Source: Bloomberg, Financial Sense Wealth Management

Growing Divergence Between Household and Nonfarm Payroll Data

household vs nonfarm payroll data
Source: Bloomberg, Financial Sense Wealth Management

Drop in Fully Employed

fully employed drop
Source: Bloomberg, Financial Sense Wealth Management

Drop in Temp Employment

temp unemployment
Source: Bloomberg, Financial Sense Wealth Management

S&P 500 Breadth

s&p 500 breadth
Source: Financial Sense Wealth Management, Bloomberg. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

Russell 2000 Breadth

russell 2000 breadth
Source: Financial Sense Wealth Management, Bloomberg. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

Russell 3000 Breadth

russell 3000 breadth
Source: Financial Sense Wealth Management, Bloomberg. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
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