July 19, 2024 – Neil Howe and William Strauss describe the "Fourth Turning" as a period of crisis and social division, often involving war or revolution, where trust in pre-existing institutions and leadership reaches a major breaking point. According to their cyclical view of history, this phase occurs every 80-100 years, with past examples including the American Revolution, Civil War, and Great Depression. According to Howe, the current Fourth Turning, initiated by the 2008-2009 financial crisis, is expected to peak towards the end of this decade into the early 2030s. Recent events like Covid, riots and protests, the extreme political division we see today, and the recent assassination attempt on former President Trump all align with Howe’s predictions of a Fourth Turning period. In today's Big Picture segment, we explore how these developments impact the current investment landscape, highlighting key indicators that investors should be aware of and discuss how we at Financial Sense are navigating these trends.
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Related links:
- Neil Howe: Halfway Through Fourth Turning
- The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End
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- Stoeferle: Governments Changing the Playbook for Gold and 60/40 Investment Portfolios
