Smart Macro: Are Investors Too Optimistic About the Outlook?

August 30, 2024 – In today's Smart Macro edition of the Financial Sense Newshour, Chris Puplava explains how the Fed's focus has now shifted from high inflation to a weakening job market, especially now that we've seen one of the largest downward revisions to the jobs data since the Great Financial Crisis and recession of 2008. Chris discusses the latest data coming in from the housing market, the manufacturing sector, and employment, and makes the case that the odds for a hard landing recession have risen.

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Charts mentioned in today's podcast:

Citi Economic Surprise Index in negative territory

Source: Bloomberg, Financial Sense Wealth Management

Continuing jobless claims trending higher

Source: Bloomberg, Financial Sense Wealth Management

Pending home sales hit new low

Richmond Fed manufacturing index plunges to recessionary levels

Source: Bloomberg, Financial Sense Wealth Management

Regional Fed manufacturing indexes in recession

Source: Advisor Perspectives

Fed funds rate projects continued rise in unemployment

Source: Bloomberg, Financial Sense Wealth Management
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