After a 75-day hiatus in testing, North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at around 3 a.m. on Nov. 29. The device was launched from Sain Ni near Pyongyang and flew a distance of 960 kilometers (597 miles) for 50 minutes at an altitude of 4,500 kilometers, according to US and Japanese defense department analysis. It landed in the Sea of Japan, 210 kilometers off the west coast of Aomori prefecture and inside Japan's exclusive economic zone. Unconfirmed reports suggest that the projectile broke into three pieces before landing in the water. Shortly after the test, South Korean forces carried out a precision-strike missile exercise — a common practice after North Korean tests.
This test demonstrates the longest distance yet traveled by a North Korean missile on a standard trajectory, with a range exceeding that of the July 28 ICBM. This improvement suggests a potentially new or modified first stage, which could be the result of data accumulated from recent ground-based engine tests. Flying on a standard trajectory and taking into account the rotation of the earth, the device could theoretically hit New York City, depending on payload size and weight.
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Another noteworthy aspect of the test is the apparent rapid deployment. The Pentagon said that the test was conducted from a mobile launcher. In recent days, reports emerged that Japan had detected signs of an impending test, including North Korean radio signals at missile bases and the deployment of a radar system that tracks missile trajectories. South Korea and the United States also said they were monitoring these signals. Japan indicated, however, that no fresh missile or mobile launch pad deployments were visible on satellite imagery. North Korea has been practicing fueling missiles in a horizontal position inside storage hangers before rolling them out quickly for a launch. It is also possible that the most recent device was solid-fueled, but this cannot be known for sure unless wreckage can be retrieved. Such rapid launches reduce the time-frame for a potential detection and any preemptive strike. The nighttime launch is also unusual in the scheme of North Korean testing (which historically occurs around dawn) but not unprecedented — the July test happened near midnight.
Flying on a standard trajectory and taking into account the rotation of the earth, the device could theoretically hit New York City, depending on payload size and weight.
It should come as no surprise that North Korea has tested another missile. The significant lull between this test and that on Sept. 15 isn't indicative of a shift in North Korea's strategy or a hesitation in pursuing a nuclear device capable of striking the US mainland. In fact, North Korean testing tends to taper in the final months of the year because of winter training schedules and the autumn harvest.
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North Korea is close to accomplishing a reliable deterrent, and estimates suggest the program will be complete by the end of 2018. This means that the window is quickly closing for the United States to decide whether to carry out a military strike to halt the program or to instead shift to a strategy of containment and deterrence. The Japanese government has already requested an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting to convene following the launch. This could result in the pursuit of further sanctions on North Korea that, however harsh, would likely be too slow-acting to deter Pyongyang from its inexorable path.
Time Running Short for US as N. Korea Launches Its Longest-Range Missile Yet is republished with permission from Stratfor.com.
