Chris Ciovacco's Contributions

5 Reasons Stocks Could Continue to Push Higher

Healthy and sustainable bull markets tend to lift all equity boats around the globe. As shown in the chart of the China ETF below (FXI), Chinese stocks struggled for the first six months of 2013. Last week’s major announcement from Chinese leaders helped FXI push to a new five month high.

Should the Fed End QE With Low Inflation/High Unemployment?

The longer you are involved with the financial markets, the more you respect the market’s obsession with the Fed. The quantitative easing process (QE) pumps money into the global financial system.

Stocks: Facts Do Not Support Euphoria/Everyone Is In Case

We were very reluctant to “get on Twitter” a few years back, but have found it to be a great source of anecdotal information allowing us to monitor investor sentiment. Since the October 9 intraday low in stocks, the trend in Twitter-land has been skeptical, rather than bullishly euphoric.

How Much Damage to Bullish Case?

The three charts that follow show the S&P 500 in 2008, 2011, and 2013. The colored lines are moving averages that help us filter out day to day volatility and focus on trends. Notice how the moving averages are moving sideways before the big plunge in 2008.

Central Banks May Limit Severity of Any Stock Market Correction

Markets must climb a wall of worry. The long-time expression on the Street is backed by common sense. If investors are worried, then it stands to reason that they may have kept some money on the sidelines for the pullback they “know” is coming soon.

Bonds Are Making a Statement About Markets and Economy

Wednesday’s Fed statement was interpreted by the markets as being more hawkish than expected (hawks want higher rates/low inflation).

Markets Should Expect ‘More Cowbell’ From Yellen Fed

Studies show that we all approach problems with an educational bias. For example, engineers develop solutions with math, and CFOs approach problems from a financial perspective.

Market Sees Tepid Growth As Taper Later Signal

Those of you who have experience with old-school charcoal grills know lighter fluid is used to prime the proverbial pump until the coals can take over. Quantitative easing (QE) is the Fed’s lighter fluid for the economy.

2007/2013: You Will Never Look at the Markets the Same Way Again

If we want to get a read on the longer-term aggregate battle between confidence in the economy/Fed/stocks relative to concerns about the economy/Fed/stocks, we can use...

Bullish Inflation Expectations Increase After Weak Labor Report

Tuesday’s monthly labor report provided us with an excellent opportunity to monitor investors’ expectations about the important battle between economic forces that create inflation and those that create deflation.

Markets Pop On Weak Dollar Events

China, Shutdown, Evans Contribute to Dollar’s Pain

Global trade has an enormous impact on both the financial markets and worldwide economy. Therefore, when the currency that serves as the guidepost for valuing assets drops 1%, it impacts investor decisions across all asset classes.

What Can We Learn From the 1987 Stock Market Crash?

The stock market was trading in an up and down fashion Tuesday as the negotiations in our capital dragged toward the October 17 deadline.

Will Earnings Season Kill the Bull Market in Stocks?

Markets tend to be a bit obsessive. In recent months, traders shifted from taper-gate to familiar political posturing in Washington, D.C. The next obsession may be earnings.

Can Yellen Offset Washington’s Drag On Markets?

According to media reports, Janet Yellen will be formally announced Wednesday as the nominee to head the Fed.

Are the Markets Looking Past the Budget Battle?

Before giving in to some late day selling, the stock market was holding up relatively well Monday given the negative drag from the budget talks in Washington. A positive offset came out of the Midwest.

Is the Market Tipping a Bearish Hand?

While there is no question the political drama in our nation’s capital is a negative for stocks, will it derail the bull market in stocks? Obviously, it is too early to definitively answer that question, but we can monitor the market’s current temperature using risk-on vs. risk-off ratios.

Will the D.C. Standoff Derail the Bulls?

You can say a lot of things about working in the money management business, but you cannot include the words dull or boring in your commentary. The markets finally got past the overly anticipated September Fed meeting...

What Are the Markets Telling Us About Risk?

Just two short days ago the Fed told us the economic data did not justify tapering their monthly bond purchases.

Evidence Said Be Bullish Before Fed – Still Does

Wednesday before the markets opened and several hours before the Fed dropped the “no-taper” bomb on the investing public...

The Perfect Fed Statement for Stock Market Bulls

In terms of the impact on the financial markets, the closer this week’s Fed statement comes to meeting market expectations, the better for the stock market bulls.

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