Chris Ciovacco's Contributions

With an important speech coming from Washington Tuesday, it remains to be seen if strength in European ETFs can see some follow-through Wednesday.

With U.S. markets making new highs, many have put Europe on the back burner. It may be time to slide that pot forward a bit.

A common sense tenet of investing is assessing possible risk relative to the possible reward. As we have noted since January 24, the stock market’s risk/reward ratio has entered unfavorable territory.

When demand for safe-haven bonds picks up, bond yields fall. Falling bond yields signal concerns about future economic growth and/or the sustainability of gains in risk assets, such as stocks. As shown below, long-term yields peaked in early 2013.

After the latest cliff-induced selloff Wednesday afternoon, the S&P 500 futures were holding up well early Thursday. According to the Washington Post, Republicans are moving forward with Plan B...

Financial markets moved higher on Monday after reports of progress on the fiscal cliff front. The Wall Street Journal reported significant improvement in the previously deadlocked negotiations...

As a client or neutral observer, it is fair to ask, “Given the uncertainty related to the fiscal cliff, what do you see that justifies being invested in risk assets right now?” The answer is numerous things; and the vast majority of them side with the bullish camp (as of Thursday’s close).

It is too early to get overly concerned about the intraday weakness we have seen in recent sessions. However, it is not too early to have contingency plans in place should outcomes skew toward the bearish end of the spectrum.

After the close on Monday, the markets received some good news from Europe. It appears the expected deal to once again “save Greece” is in place.

From a fundamental perspective, the markets have much to worry about with excessive debt in the United States and Europe. The euro zone is not yet ready to authorize more money for Greece. Spain and Italy have not requested formal bailouts, which leaves the European Central Bank on the bond-buying sidelines.

Investing is about understanding probabilities. We have been concerned about the deteriorating prospects for investors for some time, pointing out slowing momentum in technology stocks on September 10.

The present day market has numerous similarities to the period just prior to a 10.5% drop in the S&P 500 that occurred last spring. In this article, we describe what we’ll be watching in the days ahead to manage risk and reward.

The news Tuesday regarding the latest European bailout program could ignite another leg up in stocks. Spain may ask for “bailout lite”, which would take the form of a “precautionary” credit line from the European Union.

The fundamental drivers behind stock gains on Thursday morning came in the form of U.S. jobless claims falling to a four-year low and improving bond action in Europe. Despite today’s headlines, insiders and waning bullish momentum are still waving caution flags.

Would you be interested in a logical way to monitor the odds of a correction occurring in stocks? If so, it is prudent to keep your eye on the health of technology stocks. The relative strength in tech stocks began to wane in early April 2012...

Prior to adding to our risk exposure, we would like to see some improvement in several risk-on/risk-off ratios. The three risk-on vs. risk-off ratios below can assist in monitoring the health of the current rally.

Just as more money is coming off the sidelines, stocks appear increasingly susceptible to a reversal. An intermediate-term peak in global markets could come sometime in the next two weeks. Positive developments in Spain could alleviate our concerns, but for now the current path of risk assets appears to be one of a topping process.

If you are looking for an edge in terms of Thursday’s highly anticipated Fed announcement, the statements leading up to the announcement of QE2 in 2010 are an excellent place to start. Thus far, 2012 has not strayed far from the 2010 QE script, meaning we believe it is only a matter of time before QE3 is announced.

Materials may be in the process of switching from market laggards to market leaders. Below we outline six reasons basic materials are worth keeping on your radar.

Prior to looking at a troubling chart for stock investors, it is important to understand what spooked the markets in recent days. The head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, is not among the central bankers gathered in Jackson Hole this week. Mr. Draghi’s absence has raised questions about the ECB’s plans to intervene in the European bond market.