Chris Vermeulen's Contributions

Silver is in what would seem to be the “sweet spot” between gold and copper. Almost all of gold is used for investment or decorative purposes. Almost all of The Red Metal goes for industrial needs.

The dollar continues to control the short term movements in both stocks and commodities. We are about to see some fireworks across the board in the next few trading sessions and im leaning more towards lower prices. I feel as though we are at a tiping point similar to March 9-10th on the SP500...

We are seeing fear across the board from traders and investors as they dump their long positions in stocks and commodities. Just in the past two trading sessions alone we have seen extreme overbought conditions and extreme oversold conditions which generally mean another big move is brewing…

The past few weeks we have been seeing the US Dollar slide to new lows at an increasing rate. The strong devaluation of the dollar has sent precious metals like silver and gold rocketing higher out of control.

It has been a very interesting week thus far. Monday kick started traders with a heart pounding equities sell off which sent money into the US Dollar, precious metals and bonds as the safe havens of choice.

So far in 2011 the equities market has made some sizable whip saw type moves that even veteran traders have had difficulty being on the right side of the price action. The year started out with equities being very overbought and extended making is virtually impossible for a low risk trader to buy on pullbacks. This was primarily due to the fact that there were no real pullbacks other than for a day or two which was immediately followed by prices continuing to grind higher.

I was starting to put on my bullish hat on Friday morning when out of the blue an ugly close forced me to rethink my position. After viewing a few hundred charts, I have determined that while I am still leaning into higher prices at this point in time, I will not totally rule out a rollover on the S&P 500. In coming days the news flow will be extreme and headline risk will be everywhere we look. The S&P 500 has been able to deflect worry for quite some time now and in every case the resiliency is unquestionable.

Over the past couple months everyone seems to have been preparing for a sharp market correction. Crazy part is that the SP500 dropped about 10% from the high and that is a typical bull market correction. The thing is… the stock market has a way of slowly unfolding making it look and feel minor, then before you know it, the correction is over and it’s back to an uptrend. That is kind of how this one unfolded.

Equities and precious metals are on the edge of another rally and it could start as early as tomorrow. On March 13th I posted some of my analysis online showing how the market was trading at a key pivot point and that a sharp price movement was about to unfold. I also provided everyone with the direction in favor which played out perfectly catching a 4.5% in three days.

The past couple weeks have been choppy in the equities market. While the strong intraday moves are great for day traders, it is extremely difficult for swing/position traders who normally hold positions for 3-60 days in length, which is my focus with this writing.

In 2009 and 2010 we saw a 5-8% correction down to the key moving averages. I feel that we are in store for a similar pullback in 2011. After that we will most likely continue higher. The one issue I see going forward is that if the dollar breaks down it will most likely help boost oil prices which in turn puts downward pressure on stocks.

So far 2011 has been an interesting to say the least. Stocks and commodities have been jumping around with high volatility generating mixed trading signals. This choppy price action typically indicates trends are in their late stages.

Over the past few years Forex traders have really had to step up their game in order to continue making money in the currency market. Back in the day before currency trading was main stream, currencies used to trend in a direction for a long period of time with a low level of volatility. But with so many individuals now involved speculating on price action coupled with international concerns in most countries, the once slow and steady currency market now moves like the stock market with large price swings on a weekly and even daily basis.

The past couple weeks I have been keeping a close eye the price of gold and the gold miners index. I check to see if its pointing to higher or lower prices in the near future using inter-market analysis, price and volume, along with technical analysis. At this time the charts are still pointing to lower prices in the coming days or weeks.

While Ben Bernanke says we are not seeing any inflation, I think most of us know that is a load of BS as other countries like Egypt see food prices surging. Over the past couple years everyone has been talking about how inflation will soon start and that has been one of the main driving forces for higher precious metals prices.

As most sophisticated investors and traders are aware, the U.S. Federal government has run up significant deficits and the long term debt burden is becoming a drain on Gross Domestic Product. That being said, most economists are discussing the possibility of a major decline in the value of the U.S. Dollar going forward as inflationary monetary policy begins to strangle growth.

In short, I feel gold and silver are nearing a short term resistance level and will find selling pressure in the coming days only to continue on their journey down for a few weeks. The dollar on the other hand broke out of its falling wedge on Friday and could have a strong rally for 2-3 days. I feel most traders and investors have been shorting the dollar for two weeks straight, so once they realize it’s going higher there will be a ton of short covering and the dollar should rip higher.