Michael Shedlock's Contributions

New home sales surprised in a massive way this morning, blowing out all estimates to the high side. New home sales came in at 619,000 compared to a Bloomberg Econoday consensus estimate of 523,000 at a seasonally...

New accounting rules show Chicago has understated its pension liabilities by $11.5 billion. At the end of 2015, the stated liability was $7.1 billion. Today it’s $18.6 billion. That’s a jump in net liabilities of 168%.

In addition to competing GDP “Nowcasts” between the Atlanta Fed and the New York Fed, at least three financial sites offer a “Brexit Tracker” using that name. Let’s dive in with a look at the three models, all based on polls.

Retail department store sales are in a funk. Macys, Nordstrom, Dillards, Kohls, and Ralph Lauren have all reported dismal sales or profits. On Wednesday, Macy’s reported the worst quarterly sales since the recession. On Thursday, Nordstrom did the same.

The Belgian-Brazilian Conglomerate that owns Budweiser will help “Make America Great” again by renaming Budweiser to “America”. Gee, this almost makes me want to stand up and salute.

Those who had written off Donald Trump need to reconsider things in light of recent polls in five states. Trump has soared in the latest polls in California, New York, Connecticut, Maryland, and Pennsylvania.

Author and real estate mogul Robert Kiyosaki, better known as “Rich Dad“, is predicting a stock market crash starting in 2016. Unlike others who perpetually predict crashes, Kiyosaki made his crash claim in his 2002 book “Rich Dad’s Prophecy”.

Schiff laid out improbable strawman arguments based on tax consequences that as a practical matter do not exist in the real world. Ironically, his tax arguments would equally apply to “SchiffGold” purchases. Usability and ownership are the...

Axel Merk, President & CIO, Merk Investments LLC, pinged me on March 16 with his thoughts regarding “Peak Dollar“. He is not referring to the number of dollars, but rather, the intermediate-term value of the dollar compared to...

ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) has been replaced by the new central bank rage, NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy). The only tangible result of these central bank actions has been asset bubbles that are guaranteed to pop.

Tomorrow, the BLS jobs report comes out. There are huge differences in the payroll estimates ranging from a low of 55,000 to a high of 217,000 by Econoday. Citing ADP, Reuters reports US Private Sector Adds 214,000 Jobs in February.

After having ridiculously and recently placed Trump’s odds of winning the nomination in the low single digits, then the teens, Nate Silver now assesses Trump’s odds of winning at 50%. Every step of the way, Silver underestimated...

In a Surprise Move, Japan joined the negative interest rate club on January 29. The Bank of Japan expected the move would force consumers to spend some of their money. Amusingly, the only sales surge is for safes, a place where the interest...

Money continues to pour out of Italian and Spanish banks for safer havens. This month I note a curious side effect: A huge amount of money went into French banks instead of German banks. The following table shows the winners and losers.

The blue ribbon award for ridiculous comment of the day goes to Ben Bernanke who dismissed China's $28 trillion debt pile as an "internal problem" only. This revelation came from the Asian Financial Forum held in Hong Kong where Bernanke...

Claims have surfaced that not a single transport ship in the North Atlantic is moving. For example, "Superstation" claims that in a Historic First, hundreds of ships are said to all be anchored along coasts, with nothing moving. ZeroHedge picked up the story in "Nothing Is Moving," Baltic Dry...

Christmas is just over a day away. Package delivery is at record volumes. Does that portend a huge Christmas shopping season? Before addressing that question please consider the Supply Chain article UPS Delivers 36 Million Packages - Double Normal.

Here's one for the "this was not supposed to happen, and nobody saw it coming" book. Bloomberg reports on the Siberian Surprise: Russian Oil Patch Just Keeps Pumping. In the fight for market share among the world’s oil producers this year, Russia wasn’t supposed to be a contender.

Alternative Bank Schweiz (ABS), a small bank in Switzerland broke the negative interest rate on deposits barrier, CHARGING customers to cake their money. (emphasis in caps from the article). "The Alternative Bank Schweiz wrote to customers telling them they would face a -0.125 per cent...

In response to the Paris terrorist attacks, President Obama essentially said terrorists are welcome here. ABC News reports Obama Vows to Veto Bill Increasing Screening for Refugees. "President Barack Obama is vowing to veto a bill from House Republicans that would increase ..."