Ned W Schmidt CFA's Contributions

Has been, it seems, more than a year since any supply bullish/price bearish news on Agri-Foods has come out. Latest news on outlook for Russian and Ukranian wheat was not good(Financial Times, 30 March). World will not know if either nation will be able to export wheat till the second half of 2011. While at the same time, the appraisal of the North American wheat crop, now in the ground, is lackluster due to dry conditions.

Frailty of monetary policy under delusional Keynesians is evident whenever we think about Agri-Food. Price increases for Agri-Foods may be causing measures of consumer prices to rise in many countries.

RHODIUM TRADING THOUGHTS is about timely and profitable trading of precious metals. We do not believe every turn in the market can be called. Our goal is that our recommendations should be profitable. Profits are the goals, not trades. Do not expect all recommendations to be profitable. No system can achieve that lofty goal. Our goal is simply to state whether conditions for a metal are favorable or not.

Kenny Rogers may not be widely known as a great philosopher, but one of his legendary songs carried a message well worth knowing. It goes, “Know when to hold them, and know when to fold them.” Last week in the game of world monetary poker, the ECB raised the limit. Now the Federal Reserve will have to demonstrate it has what it takes to play poker with the big boys. Question is not if it will fold, but when it will fold. June or sooner?

To the right is a picture of a dog. In order to simplify this discussion in such a way those even Silver momentum traders might understand it, we have placed a circle around the approximate location of the dog’s brain and a rectangle around the tail. At this point, we should all be together.

RHODIUM TRADING THOUGHTS is about timely and profitable trading of precious metals. We do not believe every turn in the market can be called. Our goal is that our recommendations should be profitable. Profits are the goals, not trades. Do not expect all recommendations to be profitable. No system can achieve that lofty goal. Our goal is simply to state whether conditions for a metal are favorable or not. Buy signals are issued when appropriate.

Today a sign of true wealth is owning a horse. Cost of feeding them has escalated dramatically as Agri-Food prices have risen. Owning two horses is an ostentatious flaunting of one’s wealth. Paying an Iowa farmer for corn with which to produce ethanol is still criticized by many poorly informed individuals.

An old saying goes, “Lots of ways to skin a cat.” Given the rise in Agri-Food prices over the past about four years that may be a skill that becomes rediscovered in the years ahead. While growing up near St. Louis one of the more interesting experiences was a visit to the now long shut downtown open air farmers’ market.

Do not expect all recommendations to be profitable. No system can achieve that lofty goal. Our goal is simply to state whether conditions for a metal are favorable or not. Buy signals are issued when appropriate.

ONIONS! Will the onion shortage in India bring down another government, as was the case in 1998? Onions in India are much like garlic in Italy, an essential part of the good life. In India, onion demand is exceeding the ability of the nation to supply onions. Price of onions has doubled(AFP, 22 December 2010).

We seem to have missed the celebration. Forget Christmas. Forget New Year’s Eve. 23 December was the big day, and we should have all been partying. What should we have been celebrating on that day? On 23 December 1913 the Federal Reserve Act was passed by the U.S. Senate, creating the most monumental mistake of governance in 97 years.

Rhodium is not one of the topics sexy enough to hear much about. For one, not a lot of it exists. Another reason is that with Silver in a speculative burst writing about that is more fun for journalists. That said, we do now seem to read comments more often on Rh. That occurrence has gone from none to some, a large percentage increase.

Hopefully, those of you celebrating Christmas included lots of clothing in your gift shopping. Reason for that is giving or buying clothing is likely to become considerably more expensive in 2011. Our first chart below portrays the rather dramatic move in U.S. cotton prices over the past 90 weeks. Most noticeable is the price burst since late Summer, when the world discovered that global demand for cotton exceeded the global supply of cotton.

While this is not the last thought we will have this year, it is the last thoughts on Gold we will send to you in 2010. With a new year in about to about two weeks, perhaps it is time to clear our heads. We will soon be given a fresh calendar on which to record the unfolding of events. Out heads should be also ready to receive that newness for yesterday will not be repeated.

While preparing final copy of December issue of The Agri-Food Value View last week we thought that most of the relevant weather news had been covered. Then from down under came news of too much rain. Australia is not somewhere from which we expect to get such news. More often lack of rain is reported. That rain came as some Australian farmers were attempting to harvest the wheat crop. Yes, Australia is on a different weather cycle from Kansas City.

Really need to start drinking more coffee, perhaps. Must have fallen asleep and missed the demise of the U.S. dollar. For when we looked this morning, it was still there trading away. Something must have happened while we were nodding off.

Fortunately for investors the majority of the world does not allow either bumbling Bernanke or wealth confiscating Obama Regime to manage economic policy for them. What that means is that once one departs the shores of the U.S., leaving its wealth destroying policies and laws behind, economic growth is possible. That reality allows investors to find economic sectors that are benefiting from economic growth.

Rhodium Trading Thoughts is about timely and profitable trading of precious metals. We do not believe every turn in the market can be called. Our goal is that our recommendations should be profitable. Profits are the goals, not trades. Do not expect all recommendations to be profitable. No system can achieve that lofty goal. Our goal is simply to state whether conditions for a metal are favorable or not. Buy signals are issued when appropriate

Rejection may be hard for most politicians to accept, but might be good for the nation and the world.Obama Regime’s mismanagement of U.S. economy was rejected on 2nd of November in the U.S. election. That rejection ushered in the greatest change in political power in U.S. since 1948. Thus far, Obama Regime’s only positive legacy will be the greatest political rejection in 62 years. That development means Obama Regime’s reign of terror on wealth and economic growth has ended. That is bullish news for the U.S. dollar.

Readily acknowledged is that first action of new U.S. Congress should be to call for resignations of all members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Their irresponsible acts to date have clearly violated their mandate to provide a healthy economic environment. With Federal Reserve Bubble III, manifesting itself in the inflated and unnatural values for non dollar currencies, distorting the global economic system, they must be removed immediately and most recent policy action nullified.