Clif Droke's Contributions

In this commentary we’ll look at how the hedge fund industry is manipulating certain key markets for political ends as much as financial gain, and how even the president has been forced to respond. We'll also examine a major historic signal for the price of gold.

Gold’s biggest problem since February has been one of relative weakness. This weakness in turn has kept the market-moving hedge fund players away from gold. But as we’ll see in the latest commentary, that may be about to change.

A look at how Amazon and Apple are reflecting discrepancies in the U.S. retail economy and what's really happening below the surface. We also examine the gold's relative strength for clues as to its next possible rally phase.

This year will likely see the final high for the major indices as well as the economy as the final descent of the long-term cycles begins in 2013.

China's first industrial depression is on the horizon. How it responds will largely determine its economic and political future. The big X-factor for the stock market in the coming months will clearly be China.

Despite temporary successes in staving off deflation, central bank intervention ultimately proves destructive to the financial system. The U.S., Europe and China will soon discover the folly of allowing central banks to prevent deflation from running its proper course.

Gold may continue to lag U.S. and emerging market financial sectors but should be able to hold its own and loosely follow the trajectory of equities in the coming months until the 4-year cycle peaks.

The recovery in U.S. corporate earnings has been unduly influenced by one company, Apple Inc. In this essay we examine the market outlook for the balance of 2012 in light of this and the peaking 4-year cycle. We also discuss Warren Buffett's latest comments on gold.

To say that complacency has reigned in the last few months is an understatement. Volatility as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has fallen 60% since October and 20% since the start of 2012.

U.S. economic recovery intact despite worries as stocks make new highs. Cycles suggest good times may be only temporary, however. Also, we examine the gold stocks in this commentary.

Investors have flocked into Treasuries in response to the European debt crisis, ignoring gold. We answer the question as whether or not this trend will continue in 2012. Also we look at a potentially bearish development in the U.S. retail economy.

Year 2012 will be dominated by two major cycles, giving both bulls and bears a wonderful opportunity for profit before deflation hits in 2013. The cyclical bull market recovery which began in March 2009 was powerful in its first year, moderately strong in 2010 and visibly weakened by the end of 2011.

Whether 2012 is a "muddle through" year or the start of the next credit crisis depends on the monetary policy response of Europe's fiscal leaders. Failure to act now will pave the way for a turbulent 2012.

Today we look at the upcoming 120-year cycle bottom and discern whether the Kress Cycle Tsunami is likely to begin in 2012 or 2013. A gold market update is included.

The news headlines have been fixated on the debt drama unfolding in Europe. It’s important that we give some thought to this since it paves the groundwork for the upcoming 120-year cycle bottom in 2014 and will increasingly play a bigger role in the financial market in 2012 and beyond.

Gold has come into its own since October as traders continue to hang on every word coming out of Europe. In this commentary we look at gold’s positive psychological profile in light of recent media events and show how the yellow metal’s “wall of worry” is still intact.

Can the 4-year cycle keep the financial market afloat until next year's presidential election? Or will further central bank intervention be required? These questions are answered in this week's installment.

Have consumers essentially embraced an “eat, drink, for tomorrow we die!” attitude toward spending in a sluggish economy? Or have consumers simply been forced to spend a greater part of their incomes on rising fuel and food costs? The answer is a combination of each of these rationales for spending, as we’ll discuss here.

A coordinated global stimulus by the world's central banks could be in the works. We examine what would be the likely outcome of such a plan and whether it would succeed in stopping deflation.

Now that the 6-year cycle has peaked, the financial market and the economy have even less support against the ravages of deflation as we head closer to the Grand Super Cycle bottom in 2014.