Over the past few weeks, my life has been turned upside down. Prior to the election, I thought of myself as a typical, repressed businessman, an outlaw guilty of capitalistic thoughts in a going-socialistic western world.
To clarify where we stand, I think the gold shares might have made THE cyclical low last Wednesday. This conclusion is predicated on a number of factors: the valuation of gold shares relative to gold hasn't been this cheap since the 2008 deleveraging crisis, pessimism among gold equity holders reached a crescendo often marked by bear market bottoms, and the macro roadmap that I foresee which should ignite gold to resume both its cyclical and secular bull markets.
Gold investors would be well-served to monitor the conditions that routinely define bear market bottoms and bull market tops—a combination of both price and circumstance.
In every bull market there are a few potential pivot points—points when the price and fundamentals are aligned in such a manner as to offer enticing value. Life is a risk, and when the odds favor your hand, you have to bet big if ever you intend to score big. I’ll pull no punches: I’m betting big on gold equities right now!
“Who am I? What am I doing here?” Those are not my words, rather the rhetorical questions pondered out-loud by a bewildered candidate named James Stockdale in his opening remarks of the 1992 vice-presidential debate against Al Gore and Dan Quayle. Ross Perot had selected his close friend, the straightforward Vice Admiral, to be his running mate on the Reform Party ticket in order to help him restore honesty and common business sense into an otherwise corrupt world of politics.
(Like many serious investors, I insanely obsess over my decision-making, frequently questioning myself out loud to determine if my biases have led me to make bad investment choices. The following is a synopsis of those conversations in which I have tirelessly engaged myself through two somewhat imaginary characters.)
The weekend is approaching, and I am about to attend another event on my wife's busy social calendar. Already I know how the cocktail party is going to play out: The women will end up on one side of the room talking about practical, real world events--such as running a household.
