Lance Roberts's Contributions

Each quarter the Fed releases their assessment of the economy and their forward looking projections for three years into the future.

Sometimes you just have to scratch your head and go "hmm." That was my first reaction to the most recent release of the retail sales numbers for February which came in stronger than expected...

There has been much debate over the latest employment report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for February which showed headline employment gains of a whopping 236,000, of course, less discussed was the downward revision to January from 157,000 to just 119,000.

The media is going into near hysteria over the Dow rising above its 2007 closing high. While it is true that prices in the Dow, a price-weighted index of only 30 stocks, have risen above it previous peak it is important to keep some perspective by remembering a couple of points...

Bob Farrell is only one of the many truly great investors of our time from which we can learn. What you will find interesting is that not one of them promote "buy and hold" investing for the long term - probably because in reality it doesn't work.

As the markets once again approach historic highs - the overly exuberant tone, extreme complacency and weakness in the economic data, bring to mind Bob Farrell's 10 investment rules. These rules should be a staple for any long term successful investor. These rules are often quoted yet rarely heeded - just as they are now.

The ongoing message from the mainstream media, analysts and most economists is that the economy has turned the corner and we are set for substantially stronger growth in the coming year.

Money – we all want it, but few of us are willing to sacrifice to get it. Those that have it generally don't understand it, and those that don't have it come up with excuses why they can't get it. If this sounds confusing – it is.

There have been several articles as of late discussing that the next great secular bull market has arrived. Historically, secular bear markets have averaged about 14 years, and considering that we began writing about the current secular bear market cycle in early 2000, that would put the current cycle about 2 years away from it historic average.

While the belief was that the Government, and Fed's, interventions would ignite the housing market creating an self-perpetuating recovery in the economy - it did not turn out that way.

In the daily download of economic data points two in particular jumped out at me - the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index and CPI. While both reports were a positive for the economy in the short term - it was the broader aspect which sparked my curiosity.

In the never ending quest to find reasons "why" the market will rise in any given year - investors routinely grab at a whole variety of indicators that seem to have some correlation to the future outcome of the market.

Here is the problem with all economic analysis - data revisions. Each month economists, analysts and the media work off reported numbers to make assumptions about the economy.

The release of the Federal Reserve's report on consumer credit was very telling. One of the continued themes that the economy was on its way to a real recovery was that the consumer was well into deleveraging the household balance sheet.

"RISE ABOVE: THE DEBT THREAT" is the banner on CNBC. Really? Do we really need another 8 weeks of intrigue, countdowns and the proliferations of discussions over another Congressional event?

In a stunning turn of events the Republican controlled House of Representatives passed the Senate's bill to raise taxes with no cuts to spending.

The subject of inflation has remained an emotionally charged topic of debate over the last several years. As rising prices for individuals, and businesses, has negatively impacted their prosperity...

The Federal Reserve meeting for December came with few real surprises. The two important actions that were eyed by the financial markets were the pledge to continue artificially suppressing interest rates and the extension of monetary actions. Both of these goals were met.

While it is true that the large majority of business owners are supportive of the conservative ideals, as managing a business almost requires that mentality, the idea that this report is insignificant is very shortsighted. Regardless of your political bias small business create about 70% of all employment in the domestic economy.

I have seen numerous articles as of late discussing how the average American family has finally delevered their household balance sheet at last. This would be good news as lower debt levels means more personal savings which would lead to productive investment.