Lance Roberts's Contributions

Digging in the Richmond Fed report does not offer great signs of hope for a strengthening economy in the near term. The overall composite index, as stated above, declined deep into contraction territory at -17. However, this composite masks the real damage occurring beneath the surface.

The problem, however, is not a current development the recent financial crisis but goes back over a decade when pension managers began making aggressive return assumptions of 8% - the same as it is today.

23 years ago the world seemed much simpler. Francis Fukuyama wrote that the West had won the war of Capitalism. However, 23 years later things have changed. By 2016 the economy of China will exceed that of the U.S. This is not what Fukuyama expected in 1989. It should not be possible that a communistic society could poised to overtake a capitalistic economy. It is quite an amazing turn of events.

It seems that political leaders in Europe, particularly Germany, may be giving up on the idea of austerity measures to reign in the excessive debt levels that have run amok in these countries, as well as in the U.S., over the last 30 years.

The markets have just finished putting in the best quarter since 1998. How do you know? All you had to do was flip on a television, pick up a paper or scroll internet headlines. The media has been abuzz with comparisons and ebullience that the rally was evidence that the economy is back.

Hyper-inflation is not a threat. Hyper-inflation comes from a complete loss of faith in a currency from the threat of losing a war (Weimer Republic), an economic collapse or some other catastrophic event.

The problem with the proposal, and in fact all proposals presented so far, is that they are all identical in their dependence on increasing economic growth rates while at the same time cutting debt and reducing spending. The problem is that those two goals are diametrically opposed to each other in an economy that is dependent upon the latter.

For a third year in a row mainstream economists and analysts are once again planting the seeds of hope for a return to stronger GDP growth. The White House, if you look at their budget estimations, are banking on it as part of their long term deficit reduction plan.

Last August Obama's Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack said: "Well, obviously, it's [the food stamp program] putting people to work. Which is why we're going to have some interesting things in the course of the forum this morning. Later this morning, we're going have a press conference with Secretary Mavis and Secretary Chu to announce something that's never happened in this country -- something that we think is exciting in terms of job growth.

It's quite amazing actually. Two weeks ago Barron's ran the cover page of "Dow 15,000". Over the weekend Alan Abelson ran a column titled "Everyone In The Pool". Today, CNBC leads with"Dow 13,000 May Finally Lure Investors Back Into Stocks". Unfortunately, for most investors, the headline is probably right.

There has been much debate over the weekend regarding the 1.2 million individuals who moved into the "Not In Labor Force" category in Friday's Bureau of Labor Statistics report, which included an increase to the total population of 1.5 million.

Gallup released their latest employment poll today and the news doesn't bode well for tomorrow's January employment report. According to the most recent survey U.S. employment, without seasonal adjustment, increased to 8.6% as of the end of January and 8.7% as of February 1st. Either way you look at it the recent upward trend is the opposite of what we want to be seeing at this point.

There has been a deluge of articles recently about the upticks in the housing data. The consensus is that these data points are surely pointing , finally, to a bottom in the depressing decline of real estate. Let me acknowledge that I do not dispute the improvement in the data regarding home starts, permits, pending sales, etc., however, let's be clear that all of these data points are still mired at very depressed levels.

For the last several months I have been scratching my head about the Leading Economic Indicator Index (LEI), as published by the Conference Board, due to the divergence between it and other leading indicators that we watch.

For an administration that has built itself upon the idea of creating "equality" for all Americans, while pointing the finger at Wall Street and blaming them for their increases in wealth, these programs continue to fuel that divide. QE programs are great for Wall Street - however, for "Average Joe" it is a drain on their standard of living.