Tim Duy PhD's Contributions

The Fed could be headed for a very uncomfortable place. The dollar is rising, tightening financial conditions and placing downward pressure on inflation. At the same time, interest rates remain low while equities...

The biggest risk to the expansion is a dogmatic view of the neutral Fed funds rate on the part of the Federal Reserve. Markets are pricing in a secular stagnation story. The decline in long yields is also consistent with that story.

It may be that the Fed looks at the tech and housing bubble episodes and concludes that zero interest rates are not desirable even if inflation is below trend.

Early salvos by Federal Reserve policymakers in the wake of last week's FOMC non-event suggest that recent developments have had little impact on Fed thinking with regards to the appropriate timing of rate hikes.

The FOMC will reveal the outcome of this week's meeting later today. I think Calculated Risk hits the high points - "patient" is in, "considerable time" is completely out. Beyond this, we will be looking for clues on how the Fed...

Yesterday's FOMC statement was a reminder that in normal times the Federal Reserve moves slowly and methodically. Policymakers were apparently concerned that removal of "considerable time" by itself would prove to be disruptive.

The string of solid U.S. economic news continued with industrial production advancing 1.3% in November. Year-over-year growth (5.2%) is now comparable to the late-90's. Meanwhile, the international fallout from the oil price drop continues. Russia is a classic emerging market crisis story.

Both Paul Krugman and Ryan Avent are pushing back on the Federal Reserve's apparent intent to raise rates in the middle of next year. Why is the Fed heading in this direction?

The ISM manufacturing report came in ahead of expectations with the strongest number since 2011. Moreover, strength was evident throughout the internal components. If this is a taste of the data to expect this fall, it is tough to see how...

With the leaves turning to gold signaling the end of summer, so too will the Fed be facing its own change of seasons as quantitative easing comes to an end. With asset purchases likely ending in October, time is growing short for...

The Kansas City Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole conference is next week, and all eyes are looking for signs that Fed Chair Janet Yellen will continue to chart a dovish path for monetary policy well into next year.

A generally dovish performance by Yellen yesterday consistent with current expectations. But notice her acknowledgement of her critics, and watch for the "considerable period" debate to heat up as October approaches.

It appears that a case of inflation hysteria is gripping Wall Street. Joe Weisenthal at Business Insider sums up the current state of play...

Yesterday New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley gave what was both an interesting and depressing speech. Interesting in that he provides some new thoughts on the exit strategy.

The FOMC will wrap up a two-day meeting this Wednesday. I suspect the subsequent statement will be met with little fanfare. There simply has been little in the way of data to prompt any new policy path. Steady as she goes.

Incoming data has tended to disappoint. While weather impacts are taking part of the blame, I tend to think that part of the blame should fall on overly optimistic interpretations of data patterns at the end of 2013.

With the end of asset purchases in sight (and assuming activity does not lurch downward) Fed officials will increasingly turn the discussion toward raising interest rates. It is not as if the anticipated time line has been any secret.

Janet Yellen made her first public comments as Federal Reserve Chair in a grueling, nearly day-long, testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. Her testimony made clear that we should expect a high degree of policy continuity.

The financial markets are not being kind to freshly minted Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. The level of scrutiny she will face when she makes what is likely to be her first public appearance as Chair next week was already high, and is rising by the minute.

Plenty of data and Fedspeak to chew on last week, the sum total of which I think point in the same general direction. Economic activity is on average improving modestly, the Federal Reserve will push through with another round of tapering next week, and low inflation continues to hold back the threat of rate hikes.