Sober Look's Contributions

The majority of economists still expect the Federal Reserve to begin the long-awaited liftoff next month. However is this dovish FOMC truly prepared to "pull the trigger" this time? Here are some reasons...

Today's ISM non-manufacturing report showed US services sector expansion considerably stronger than economists had anticipated. The strength of services sector expansion however has diverged materially from...

Back in February numerous equity investors refused to believe that a crude oil recovery is likely to be unsustainable. Many viewed this as a buying opportunity - just as they did in 2011 when such "bottom fishing" strategy worked.

The Governor of the Bank of Canada (BOC), Stephen Poloz, was not kidding when he warned that the first quarter of 2015 would be “atrocious.” After a respectable fourth quarter in 2014, the Canadian economy took a turn...

In 2014 the Saudis could no longer accept the loss of crude oil market share as the North American production levels shot up sharply over a three-year period.

Many in Europe continue to believe in the permanence of the Eurosystem. The Bank of Greece is controlled by the ECB and its assets and liabilities will always be consolidated into the Eurosystem. By this argument, the collateral...

Yesterday a report from the National Association of Home Builders showed that US homebuilders have turned rather optimistic again. Given the recent weakness in construction spending some have dismissed this survey data.

The latest report from Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) shows that job openings in the United States are at a 15-year high. By the looks of the chart below, one could conclude that there is no slack in US...

The speculative fervor in China's equity markets is spreading as the Shanghai Composite hits new multi-year highs on elevated volume. The index easily cleared the 5000 mark after hovering just just above 2000 around six...

We seem to be undergoing a market sentiment change as fresh signs appear that US inflation has bottomed. Commodity markets are firmer, particularly industrial metals. We've seen nickel prices moving up sharply...

Risks to the euro area's ongoing economic recovery have risen recently as Greece once again takes center stage. The nation is about to become the first developed economy to default on its IMF obligation...

In 2011, as the sovereign debt crisis engulfed the Eurozone, the EUR/USD swap basis was deep in the negative territory. It was caused to a large extent by US money market funds who refused to roll dollar-denominated commercial paper issued by European banks...

With property markets in trouble, China's speculative investors are turning to equities. Moreover, increasing numbers of new investors are entering the markets. Last week we saw more than a million new A-share accounts opened, with brokerage firms having...

Further evidence is emerging that China's economic growth is likely to slow further. Even without thinking about growth fundamentals, when you have a 10 trillion dollar economy, a 7% growth is larger than...

With the dollar's renewed strength and slower global demand, commodities are under pressure again. The situation in Brazil is not helping as the weak Brazilian real encourages producers to dump commodities at...

Following Janet Yellen's Senate Banking Committee testimony, the Fed seems to be quite deliberate in preparing for a rate hike in 2015. It's hard to imagine taking such action in the disinflationary environment we find...

Brazil's economic uncertainty continues to worsen. While growth projections for all the BRICS have been lowered, for the first time in years Brazil's economy is now expected to contract in 2015.

Back in September the idea that the Eurozone's economy could potentially undergo a recovery (see post) was met with some skepticism. And yet here we are. The EuroStoxx50 index is up 14% for the year while...

China's central bank followed up with a second rate cut this year. While many believe this is a step in the right direction, the move alone will do little to reduce high real rates and tight effective monetary policy.

Let's take a look at the recent developments in the U.S. energy markets and the seemingly contradictory reaction by equity investors. First of all, while we continue to see significant declines in the U.S. rig count...