The price of oil has dropped 60% in little over a half year. In the past few days, the price has jumped 15%. It's the first significant rally in oil since the plunge began. So, has the drop in oil prices ended? Probably not.
Low interest rates are not popular with fund managers. A prominent bond fund manager, for example, thinks that "central banks are 'distorting' capitalism by keeping interest rates ultra low and causing returns on...
U.S. corporates have started reporting their financial results for the 4th quarter of 2014. So far, it looks horrible. Bearing in mind that just 18% of the S&P has reported, this is how the quarter is tracking: EPS growth...
In May we started a recurring monthly review of all the main economic data. At the time, the consensus view was that growth in wages and employment were accelerating and that this would soon lead to a meaningful increase in inflation...
Patterns in the stock market primarily persist for a reason. For example, downtrends are frequently reversed on Tuesdays. Why? Spooked investors may not want to hold risk over the weekend, so they sell on Friday.
The latest Federal Reserve flow of funds data provides an up to date view of households' current asset allocation. Let's review. Household's largest holding is in equities; these comprise about 31% of their total financial assets.
S&P 500 company results for 3Q were really very good. Let's review and discuss what this means heading into 2015. Sales grew 3.9% on a trailing 12-month (TTM) basis. That is as good as analysts had expected.
The fall in oil prices is gathering much attention. Since mid June, light crude oil (WTIC) has fallen by about 40%. Current prices are the lowest since September 2009, more than 4 years ago.
Bond yields are falling, as are commodity prices. Both NDX and RUT are starting December down more than 1%. Is a December swoon set to trigger? Based purely on seasonal tendencies, the odds of a steep fall in equities through the end of the year are low.
Interest rates are low, so stock valuations should be high. After all, a lower discount rate means that company cash flows are worth more; hence, a higher stock price. And the higher yield offered by equities makes them more attractive than low yielding treasuries, another reason to pay up for stocks.
In May we started a recurring monthly review of all the main economic data. At the time, the consensus view was that growth in wages and employment were accelerating and that this would soon lead to a meaningful increase in inflation above the Fed's 2% target. So far, this has been wrong.
The Federal Reserve's third "quantitative easing" program officially ended last week. Many traders hold the view that equity markets have become addicted to central bank stimulus and that the end of QE3 will therefore result in a significant fall in equities...
In May we started a recurring monthly review of all the main economic data. At the time, the consensus view was that growth in wages and employment were accelerating and that this would lead to a meaningful increase in inflation above the Fed's 2% target. So far, this has been wrong.
Oct 1 – Cris Sheridan welcomes analyst Urban Carmel. During the historic tech bubble of the late 1990s, stock valuations soared far higher than ever before. With stocks today already above historical averages, could we expect to see the same level of euphoria happen again, driving stocks two or three times higher from where they stand today?
