Jan 10 – Charles Bolin is an engineer with a background in math, computer science, and economics who has developed an investment model that tracks 30 main indicators to determine what his allocation level should be to the stock market vs. cash...
By Charles Bolin – My Investment Model has a high allocation to stocks with an increasing shift to a conservative rotation. Financial risk is low with improving corporate performance, steady economic growth, and moderate inflation...
Trade and employment are more complicated than the U.S. just being inundated by cheap products that rely on cheap labor to displace American jobs. Low savings rates in the U.S. and the high savings rates in some countries impact the exchange rates making...
My views of President-elect Trump's incomplete economic plan is more favorable since reading about the issues in more detail. I hope that the final plan worked out with Congress and the Senate does achieve the desired goal of stimulating the economy. Monetary policy...
The expectations of US GDP growth have slowed to 1.7-2.0% for the next 5 to 10 years. High market valuations and slow growth are toxic in the medium term. Demographics and high debt levels are likely to slow growth over the next decade or two. 2017 tax, trade, and...
Balance sheet recessions often take decades to recover from. The current budget deficit is less than 3% and not excessive by historical standards. He describes a trade-off in balance sheet recessions between higher debt/GDP ratios and severe recessions or depressions...
Sep 14 – Charles Bolin, a mining engineer and contributor at Seeking Alpha, unpacks his latest Investment Outlook, which includes a detailed view of household income, consumption, production, and corporate health trends.
Of the monthly data that I track, 46% are trending negative compared to 62% last month. Of the quarterly data, 67% is trending worse. The chart below shows my Investment Indicator for the average of the Technology and Financial corrections...
The Investment Climate has taken a breather from its decline but is not positive for stocks at this time. I suspect that it will continue its descent before the end of the year. Ben Inker wrote in the GMO Quarterly Letter, “There is no panacea for the low returns...
The graph below shows the main indicator trends for the past 18 months. Most have been deteriorating. The big drop in the Eurozone is due to the Economic Policy Uncertainty index over Brexit.
May 26 – Charles Bolin, a mining engineer and contributor at Seeking Alpha, says the market is likely in the process of forming a major top and, if current trends continue, expects a recession before the end of 2017. Here, he explains the message...
This article is a supplement to a podcast for Financial Sense and provides an update to my outlook for the markets based on the Investment Model that I described in Seeking Alpha last month. The model consists of 37 Indicators and about 100 sub-indicators...
