One of my favorite sci-fi series is The Foundation Trilogy by Isaac Asimov. The book was first published in 1951 and is a grand “space opera” that takes place in the distant future. At the heart of the series (and what makes it so interesting) is...
The Fed is going to hike this Wednesday. They’ve made that clear. But why the complete reversal in tone since their last meeting? The answer is obviously because of the Fed’s unspoken third mandate — putting caps on bubbles.
An alternative title for a trader is “professional uncertainty manager.” Trading is a business of possibilities, not certainties. Despite our best efforts to predict financial markets, we’ll inevitably be wrong time and time again. Many of our...
You’re probably familiar with the story of how Soros and Druckenmiller “broke the Bank of England” in 92’. The two bet against the pound believing that it couldn’t maintain its peg to the Deutsche Mark in the European Exchange Rate...
Let’s talk about currencies. The different types of currencies and the various roles they play in the global financial system. Because this topic is complex and I don’t want to get lost in the weeds, I’ll be making broad sweeping...
Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater (world’s largest and most successful hedge fund) wrote a note this week that is worth reading in full. Ray thinks Trump’s election means we’ll “have a profound president-led ideological shift that is of a magnitude...
When Ray Dalio speaks, you should listen. He’s been pulling money consistently from the markets over the last 30 years and has a long record of being right. There is now more than $13 trillion — that’s trillion with a “T” — of global debt...
Macro is at a crossroads. No one scenario “has” to happen. The macro picture (economy & market) can go in many different directions from here. Which direction is dependent on a number of black boxes that we simply can’t see into.
We’re trading in some truly interesting times. Check out the index below from Credit Suisse depicting contagion risk across global markets and asset classes. It’s now showing that global markets and assets are at their highest correlation...
Over a third and growing quickly. That’s the share of the market that’s now comprised of blind sheep passive indexers. That much passive money is nothing to sneeze at. Call me old-fashioned, but I was originally led to believe that...
Things could get real interesting in the next few months. On Oct. 17th a new SEC rule finally comes into play that will affect money market funds and liquidity across the financial sphere. There’s potential for some really big...
We’ve all heard the constant chorus of central bank bashing. The ridicule comes from a diverse crowd, ranging from retail Joe Schmoes to prominent hedge fund managers… and I admit, Fed economists make for easy targets.
One of our more profitable trades this year was in the cryptocurrency Bitcoin. We caught it breaking out of a long term triangle pattern and rode it to the very top of its trend. We then successfully exited our position right before Bitcoin began...
