Sep 20, 2024 – Financial Sense Newshour speaks with Jim Welsh at Macro Tides about the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut this week and what it signals about the economic outlook, and the potential impacts it may have on the markets, including...
Aug 8, 2024 – The recession signal from the Sahm Rule is why the S&P 500 lost 100 points or -1.8% on August 2 after the release of the jobs report. Since 1953, the recession signal has consistently arrived after a recession has taken hold...
Aug 5, 2024 – In the 1954 film “The High and the Mighty,” a flight from Honolulu to San Francisco experiences a failure of one of its four engines and a fuel loss. This emergency arises just beyond the point of no return, where turning back is no longer an option...
Aug 2, 2024 – The most recent data shows unemployment rising with a sharp slowdown in the pace of hiring. After this week's market wrap-up, Financial Sense Newshour speaks with Jim Welsh at Macro Tides to discuss the latest jobs number rattling...
Jul 30, 2024 – A number of mega cap stocks report earnings this week so the likelihood of volatility is high. The chart of the Semiconductor Index provided an important clue given that institutions remain overweight this index and any change to...
Jul 24, 2024 – The magnitude of the move into the Russell 2000 was historic. When data is 2 standard deviations from the mean it encompasses 95.0% of all outcomes. According to Bespoke, the Russell 2000 closed 4.4 standard deviations above...
Jul 18, 2024 – After the CPI report on July 11, Semiconductor and Mega Cap stocks sold off sharply. The Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell -3.8% from its intra-day high as Nvidia shed -6.7%. On Friday, these sectors rallied as Momentum players...
Jul 9, 2024 – Services comprise 80% of GDP so changes in the level of growth in services will determine when and how much the economy slows. One month doesn’t make a trend but it can offer a clue. In June, the ISM Services Index...
Jul 1, 2024 – The BCA Unemployment Model predicted the recessions in 1980, 1982, 1990, 2001, and in 2008-2009 with a lead time of less than 6 months and has never issued a false positive. In March, the BCA model generated a recession signal...
Jun 25, 2024 – Flamingos can stand on one leg for a long time but the stock market can only manage that feat until there is a reason to sell. An absence of selling pressure and a positive fundamental narrative can stretch the market’s ability to stand on one leg...
Jun 21, 2024 – Economic data in the US is now consistently falling short of expectations, with slowing consumer spending and rising state-level unemployment signaling trouble. Jim Welsh of Macro Tides, who dismissed recession...
Apr 5, 2024 – In this episode of the Financial Sense Newshour, Jim Puplava and Macro Tide's Jim Welsh discuss the investment backdrop for investors today when it comes to the large amount of spending by the US government and...
Feb 23, 2024 – After this week's wrap-up, Financial Sense Newshour speaks with Jim Welsh at Macro Tides about market booms and busts that correspond to secular (long-term) interest rate trends. Jim believes we are in the early stages...
Jan 12, 2024 – After this week's wrap-up, Financial Sense Newshour's Jim Puplava speaks with Jim Welsh at Macro Tides about an important 17-year cycle followed by an outside-the-box interview with Art Berman, who makes the case...
Dec 15, 2023 – After this week's market wrap-up, Financial Sense Newshour speaks with Jim Welsh at Macro Tides about the big surge in the stock market this month as the consensus increasingly expects a perfect trifecta...
Sep 29, 2023 – After this week's wrap up with Ryan Puplava, Financial Sense Newshour speaks with Jim Welsh at MacroTides to get an update on his big picture outlook for the US economy and markets. Jim says that the markets are...
Aug 4, 2023 – Financial Sense Newshour speaks with Jim Welsh at Macro Tides and Frank Holmes at US Global Funds on the risk for a market correction as bond yields (borrowing costs) climb higher into restrictive territory...
Jul 5, 2023 – Jim Welsh from Macro Tides suggests that previous predictions of a recession for last year or the first half of the present year were too early. However, he points out that the most trustworthy indicators of an impending recession...
Jun 9, 2023 – After this week's market wrap-up, Financial Sense Newshour speaks with Jim Welsh at Macro Tides about how another recession domino just fell right at the same time investors are getting all bulled upon on tech stocks...
Apr 7, 2023 – After this week's market wrap-up, Financial Sense Newshour speaks with Jim Welsh at Macro Tides to get an update on his outlook for the markets and the economy. Next Marshall Adkins, Head of Energy Investment Banking...
