Chris Ciovacco's Blog

You may have run across an article or two stating that NYSE margin debt recently reached an all-time high (ATH). Some of the articles equate a new high in margin debt with a new high in speculation, which must mean...

Markets are always reassessing the balance between bullish information and bearish information. If concerns about anything, including Greece, were significant relative to bullish information, we would expect to see...

While we make decisions based on observable evidence (rather than forecasting), it is always a good idea to understand bullish and bearish possibilities. One bullish scenario that could enable the broad market to break from...

Points A, B, C, and D in the chart below show a series of higher lows. The higher lows tell us that buying conviction has exceeded selling conviction at higher and higher levels in recent months. Another way to visualize the formation of the triangle is that dip buyers...

The market will be looking to see if the Fed drops the phrase “considerable time” from their upcoming December 17 statement. Changing the language would increase the odds of an interest rate hike coming in the next six months, something that could spook the stock and bond markets.

When you get down to brass tacks, asset prices are governed by supply and demand. In the markets, the conviction of buyers relative to the conviction of sellers also plays a major role.

Stock prices have a high correlation to economic activity and earnings. History tells us bear markets are often kicked-off by recessions. Recent economic data does not hint at an imminent recession. However, a mixed message came in a September 15 report on industrial production.

If top policy makers and military leaders were caught off guard by the military action in Iraq, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, then we can assume the same can be said for many investors.

On April 8, we outlined reasons to be concerned about stocks. The Fed pays close attention to the market’s risk profile; maybe they didn’t like what they saw. In addition to the Fed minutes that were released Wednesday, Charles Evans seemed to be carrying the “talk stocks back up” torch for the U.S. central bank.

After posting another new high last week, stocks were taking a breather during Monday’s session. The primary catalyst came out of China.