Chris Ciovacco's Blog

The Federal Reserve has signaled to the markets that economic data would have to veer significantly off their anticipated path to terminate the Fed’s tapering process. Some additional taper-friendly remarks were made this week.

Thursday’s new all-time closing high on the S&P 500 is relevant from a support and resistance perspective. The previous all-time closing high of 1,848 was printed January 15.

We were recently asked in a handful of emails about the importance of emerging market bonds (PCY) relative to the S&P 500. The basic question was “should we be tracking the emerging market bond ETF (EMB) to monitor the health of the S&P 500 (SPY)?”

Last week, we noted that buying dips in 2014 was riskier than doing so in 2013. Markets often anticipate bad news. The news that came Monday made it hard on last week’s dip buyers.

When the U.S. markets are healthy, overseas concerns often get overlooked. You have seen headlines about China recently, but may not have taken the time to click-through.

Supply and demand is a simple and powerful concept. When investors are confident about future economic outcomes, they gravitate toward growth-oriented and higher beta ETFs.

Earnings season always causes some hesitation in the bull’s camp. As more and more releases hit the wire, the question is will the concerns be justified?

The U.S. economy is highly dependent on consumers buying and consuming. It is much easier to buy and consume when you are employed. Consequently, investors monitor the labor market very closely.

As we noted on January 2, the market’s current profile does not point to an imminent bear market in stocks. However, anyone who studies markets knows strong bull markets are inevitably followed by principal-destroying bear markets.

As we prepare to close the books on 2013, investors are being hit with a variety of financial forecasts for 2014. Are we better off basing investment decisions on forecasts or a method based on observing, tracking, and adjusting?