Chris Ciovacco's Blog

Why was the stock market able to break out from the 13-year consolidation pattern we covered last Friday? The bigger picture answer may lie in the answers to these five sub-questions.

The weekly chart of the Dow below tells us the battle between bullish economic conviction and bearish economic fear continues to be won by the economic optimists.

Before we examine how long bull markets can last, it should be noted the bulls have the fundamental and technical stars aligned for a year-end rally in stocks. From a probability perspective, the best time to invest is when charts and economic reports agree.

If the market’s pricing mechanism (aggregate opinion of all investors) perceives the economy is strong enough to take the baton from the Fed, it is bullish for equities. Perception sets asset prices. Friday’s GDP report helped strengthen bullish perception.

We made the case on July 30 the Fed’s desire to taper is about bubble management rather than confidence in the economy. Hard evidence aligning with a “the Fed is still concerned about the economy” stance was...

If you follow the markets closely, you have probably asked yourself at some point why does the Fed keep sending mixed messages? If we think in extremes, we can understand the Fed’s rationale.

The Fed has said for some time it wants to see substantial improvement in the labor market before ending this round of quantitative easing, meaning an aggressive tapering schedule is not likely to be announced in the coming weeks...

With some better than expected economic news to digest, the S&P 500 was up 5 points early in the pre-holiday session, which added to the bullish list of things to be thankful for.

Before we examine the bear market red flags that were waving in 2000 and 2007 and how they relate to 2013, it is important to acknowledge the role of central banks in the stock market’s advance.

If you work around or trade the financial markets, it is impossible to insulate yourself from the never-ending use of the term bubble.