James Gruber's Blog

Inflation is dead. At least that’s the view of the vast majority of economists, investors, policymakers and financial commentators. The view has been given further currency in recent months via various speeches from IMF director, Christine Lagarde.

Late last year, Asia Confidential made a seemingly outrageous call: that junior gold miners would likely prove the great contrarian trade of 2014. At the time, these stocks were the most hated assets on the planet.

Financial headlines have rightly been dominated by the largest 7-day sell-off of the Chinese yuan on record. Everyone’s speculating whether it’s been a deliberate move by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) or not.

A week doesn’t go by without hearing about the problems which will be created by the world’s rapidly aging population. Much of the focus is on how fewer people will mean lower future economic growth.

Is China’s economy headed for a crash in 2014? It’s an extreme question that would be laughed at by many. After all, most believe that China is the world’s new powerhouse off the back of near 10% annual growth over the past decade.

The traditionally quiet period for markets in December is turning out to be not-so-quiet, thanks to a key meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve starting December 17. The meeting will decide on whether a reduction in quantitative easing (QE) is necessary...

Investors are focused on the possible tapering of U.S. stimulus and starting to take some money off the table after a strong equities rally year-to-date. Less attention is being paid to the biggest source of risk at present: deflation in the developed world.

China has unveiled its most sweeping reform agenda in more than 30 years, after a meeting of key Communist Party leaders in Beijing last week.

Everyone knows how the likes of retail and newspapers have been transformed by the internet. Well, there's much more to come as it's clear that supermarkets, healthcare and education are next in line for technological upheaval.

The contrast of the past week has been telling. In the U.S., you’ve had the yawn-fest otherwise known as the debt ceiling debate. All too predictably, the Republicans caved because their politicians will be up for re-election soon enough whereas Obama won’t be (he can only serve two terms).